We were wrong on peak oil. There's enough to fry us all

[econmagic]

5. Sanity

It is true that many peak oilers jumped the gun, mainly because they wanted to make their claims more sensational, in order to catch people's atention. That by no means should cause us to go to the other extreme that seems to be taking hold, which is the current claim that all is well. Truth is that even with the explosion of unconventional oil, the supply/demand picture will remain tight. Let us not forgetthat conventional oil, which makes up 80% of the total, is currently on an ondulating production plateau since 2005. As we will experience the upwards ondulation, we will get the kind of euphoria we see today, and as the ondulation will trend down, we will once again hit dispair. Then, one day, we will realize that the downward ondulation is permanent, with only minor breaks in the trend. At that point, unconventional oil will no longer compensate, and things will get bad. I'm not sure how long it will take for it to happen, nor can I be certain that it will play out exactly as I described. One thing is for sure, that it is a much closer description of reality, than either the most sensationalist peak oil crowd, or the optimists currently have on offer.
http://zoltansustainableecon.blogspot.com/2012/05/controversy-over-peak-oil-oil-prices.html