The polls are suggesting a huge shift in the electorate. Are they right? [View all]
(Politico) Something weird is happening beneath the overall stability of the early 2024 polling — and it’s either a sign of a massive electoral realignment, or that the polls are wrong again.
Polls show former President Donald Trump is ascendant with the youngest bloc of the electorate, even leading President Joe Biden in some surveys, as less-engaged young voters spurn Biden. Meanwhile, Biden is stronger with seniors than he was four years ago, even as his personal image is significantly diminished since he was elected last time.
That would be a generational shift: For decades, Democratic presidential candidates have overwhelmingly won young voters, and Republicans have done the same with the other end of the electorate. Poll after poll is showing that’s flipped this year.
If these changes are real, it would have profound effects on the coalitions both campaigns are building for November. No Republican has won young voters since George H.W. Bush’s landslide victory in 1988, and no Democrat has carried the senior vote since Al Gore hammered Bush’s son, George W. Bush, on Social Security in 2000.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/age-inversion-rocking-2024-election-110000502.html?.tsrc=940%2619908-1202929-20240408-0&segment_id&ncid=crm_19908-1202929-20240408-0&bt_user_id=QVSKr6sEa5pO6FaQaHIl8jzpKwtxLxZHGZNqm4WbOqN8wwZwINCAPDV1DJw6VBhd&bt_ts=1712574029060
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