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nehcmit

(1 post)

7. 80%+ is reasonable

Reply to Bill USA (Original post)

Wed Aug 29, 2012, 07:45 PM

Aug 2012

Another statistician we hired ran a much simpler analysis and got 80%. This analysis ignores the impact of GDP growth since the election is so near, and focuses purely based on statistics.

The reason the odds are so good for Obama is because Romney has to win 57% of the contested electoral votes to win. The odds of this happening, based on current polling results, is only 20% with a 95% confidence of margin error at 8.1%.

http://www.nerdwallet.com/markets/election

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Highlight:

Predict Obama's odds in the 2012 election - WaPo [View all] Bill USA Aug 2012 OP

Do they factor in an insane opposition party and/or candidates? Vincardog Aug 2012 #1

Of course, as you can see, H.W. Bush was predicted as a big winner in '92... Drunken Irishman Aug 2012 #2

R&K based on your response. nt longship Aug 2012 #3

well said friend.. ge6252geafae Aug 2012 #4

I couldn't get the prior President's to work...?? Bill USA Aug 2012 #5

If the Romneys keep opening their mouths, Skeptical George Aug 2012 #6

80%+ is reasonable nehcmit Aug 2012 #7

You still have to factor in GOP dirty tricks! LongTomH Aug 2012 #8