The Deafness Before the Storm: New York Times

[caseymoz]

53. I didn't attack, at all.

I informed you that the tinfoil hat remarks were not the arguments against you. Wild conjecture and paranoid schizophrenics are insults? I didn't say you were schizophrenics, I warned they would be attracted you your movement, and their delusions would then misinform you. Wild conjecture, I'll resort to analogy: if a pitcher throws the ball ten feet above the plate, does calling it wild pitch insult him?

Let me explain exactly why I don't believe in a US government conspiracy to commit 9/11. It's mathematical theorem called Baye's Theorem. The way it applies here is this: the arrow of inference (if you know logic) isn't always reversible. If you have US government conspiracy, you might expect some things to occur, such as having Building 7 collapse. But if Building 7 collapses, that doesn't mean it's caused by a US government conspiracy. Even if you have a whole bunch of things like this, where steel seemingly melts at low temperatures, that still doesn't point to a conspiracy. In both of those, there are several other things other things it can be. Because statistically, there are several other things that could be the cause, the odds of all of them pointing to a conspiracy are vanishingly small. Even if a government conspiracy is one of the possibilities in every piece of evidence.

The best evidence is the most direct and immediate. So, what did we have directly and immediately? We saw planes hit buildings, and we have the fact that Mohammed Atta and his friends weren't motivated to conceal what they did after the fact.

For comparison, if you see Patty shoot John on a video, and you have the pistol, and the bullet, but then you notice on the video that the smoke coming off the pistol looks odd, you don't make the inference that Patty's brother Tom must have done it. Not even if Tom didn't like John dating his sister. You then don't make jumps and say, oh, Tom poisoned John and made it look like Patty did it. Yet, this is exactly what you've done.

The FBI, CIA, Dick Cheney and the Pentagon also don't add up to government committed scenario. You apparently think that if you take all those together, they add up to a conspiracy. No. Mathematically speaking, they don't. They don't give you anything. And since the universe speaks math, I agree with it.

I like your Jack Nicholson "Truth? You can't handle the truth . . ." riff.

Wrong, I can handle it. I actually wish what you say happened. if anything a US government conspiracy to commit 9/11 implies a much easier world than the one we have. First, once we uncover the conspiracy, (and we will, because we can make wild guesses and count on being right about catching them), you can count on radical reform. Whereas with anything less, we're going to get something far less radical.

Second, the whole universe would be much easier. It's one where I could look at liquid pouring from the building, say it must be a conspiracy, and count on being right, without having anything like skills. Fuck, I'd take that universe in a second.