Andrew Sullivan: How Obama's Long Game Will Outsmart His Critics

[eridani]

53. Does anyone else want to puke until you can't puke anymore about this defense of--

--the Grand Bargain in "entitlement" "reform"? In Sullivan's fluffy pink bunnyland, the worst midterm slaughter of the president's party in modern times apparently never happened. Behold the bitter fruits of the "Grand Bargain"

Social Security and the Future of the Democratic Party
Preliminary research from Strengthen Social Security

1. Public support for Social Security is very high – it is a core value for people so Democrats take it away at their peril.
• Numerous surveys show that 75% to 80% oppose cutting Social Security benefits to reduce the federal deficit. The public understands it has no relationship to the federal deficit because they pay special taxes for it.
• 2010 election eve/day poll showed STRONG opposition to Social Security cuts – 73% Democrats, 72% Independents, 72% Republicans, 61% Tea Party.
• 7 out of 10 voters oppose raising the retirement age. It is especially strong among blue collar voters: non-college men and especially non-college women, which are core labor constituencies in the key battleground states.

2. Democrats have limited credibility on Social Security issue at this point in time.
• Democrats used to crush Republicans when voters were asked: who do you trust to better handle Social Security? Today, they are losing badly to Republicans.
• Election Day 2010 voters favored Republicans on Social Security 31% to 28%. But
• Oct. 2006 poll: 48% Democrats to 20% Republicans
• Oct 2002 poll: 43% Democrats to 20% Republicans
• Oct. 1998 poll: 44% Democrats to 21% Republicans
• Same pattern is true for Presidents:
• Obama on 2010 Election Day: Voters said Republicans could be more trusted than Obama on Social Security by 33% to 26%.
• Bush in 2005: Democrats in Congress were favored over Bush on Social Security by 50% to 37%.
• Clinton in 1995: He was favored over Republicans in handling Social Security by 53% to 34%.

3. A damaged Democratic brand on Social Security will spell electoral disaster in 2012 and beyond.[This section is still being researched; we are looking at Senate races to make the strongest case. Obama believes he can win in 2012 even with a large loss among seniors, as long as he comes close to replicating his large surge in 2008 (a big if), although they have not said how large the seniors loss can be.]
• Democrats will not win seniors in 2012, but we must hold down our losses to a manageable level – maybe a 10% advantage for Republicans – if we are to hold (or at least minimize losses in the Senate and make up lost ground in the House.
• 2006: Republicans had no advantage among seniors – 49%-49%, when Democrats won big in congressional races.
• 2010: Republicans had a 21% point advantage among seniors – 59% vs. 38%.
• 2008: Republicans had an 8% point advantage among seniors – 53% vs. 45% in a wave election favoring Democrats
• 2004: Republicans had a 5% point advantage among seniors – 52% to 47%
• 2000: Democrats had a 3% point advantage among seniors – 50% to 47%
• 1996: Democrats had a 7% point advantage among seniors – 50% to 43%
• Beyond 2012, Republicans will have an easier time garnering the support of baby boomers if Democratic support for Social Security becomes blurred, an outcome that could impact national politics for many years.

4. Cutting Social Security will demoralize the Democratic base.
• It will be very hard to motivate activists in the party if the President leads the effort to cut Social Security. It will be seen as a betrayal of everything we have worked decades for.
• For unions in particular, the union leader’s credibility with its
own members will be at great risk if the President leads the effort to cut Social Security.

5. The President can and should build support for his reelection and congressional Democrats by embracing Social Security as a crucial component of the economic security of American families. He should emphasize that:
• In an economy that is increasingly risky, it is the only program American families can count on to provide effective life insurance for their young children, disability insurance and retirement protection.
• Social Security as a core part of his commitment to protecting the middle class.

6. Protecting Social Security would be a bipartisan bonanza for the President and regain ground lost due to Republicans on Medicare.
• The President wants to be seen as working with Republicans. Why not ask them to join him in pledging to not cut Social Security. He will hit a grand slam with the public, which wants no cuts to the program and would like both parties to work together to protect the program. It will be a surprise move to the Republicans and put them in a box.
• Republicans were very effective in the 2010 campaign skewering Democrats as Medicare cutters. This was probably the single greatest attack Republicans had on Democrats with older voters. This could happen again with Social Security. The way to get this age group back is to go on offense on Social Security.