Salon: When a party flirts with suicide

[happyslug]

33. No way he would have forced Congress to pass the Civil Rights Acts of 1964 or the voting act of 1965

Yes, both were pushed through by their congressional sponsors (and a higher percentage of GOP Congressmen voted for both then Democratic Congressmen)m but LBJ guided the Government through the longest Filibuster in History. LBJ, with what was referred to as the "LBJ Touch" kept people on board and slowly worked his way to a 68 Senate Vote to end debate (Only 50 Senate votes was needed to pass the Act, it took 67 to get the 2/3rds vote to end the debate on the passage of the act, and the most credit should go to those Senators who voted to end the Filibuster AND then voted against the Act, the first vote was the one that counted, the second vote was to preserve their chance of re-election).

As to NSAM 263 w NSAM 273, neither really counted, the deterioration of the Military Situation in Vietnam during 1964 forced the US hands, either denounce JFK's promise to fight Communism anywhere and leave Vietnam fall, or intervene with troops to prevent that fall. With the Majority of Americans willing to send in troops to Vietnam to stop "Communist Aggression" no American President, even one with Nostradamus ability to "see the future" would have had to send in troops (i.e. whoever would have been President in 1965 would have had to send in troops even if he KNEW it would end in failure). That sad fact is what most people who attack LBJ's decision to go into Vietnam refuse to accept. LBJ was a victim of the US War on Communism.

If LBJ had left Vietnam fall in 1965, the GOP would have been all over him for NOT opposing Communism. His whole agenda, including ENFORCING the Civil Rights Act of 1964 would have been attacked as appeasement to Communism. The Great Society Program would have gone down in flames, along with any chance of any real enforcement of the 1964 Civil Rights Act.

One way to look at this is the 1954 Supreme Court Decision to end racial segregation in 1954, Racial Segregation in the Public Schools was still alive and well in 1964 and would remain so till the Congress elected after Watergate finally decided to fund public school but only if their were NOT segregated. That decision, by Congress, killed segregation, NOT the US Supreme Court decision (which only said it was illegal, and it should stop if and when the local schools decide to do so).

This is the POWER of Congress, not the President. LBJ understood this and decided to make sure Congress was always on his side. The House is elected every two years, so the polls showing the Public Support for the War in Vietnam was important to such Congressmen and thus to LBJ. Thus the famous comment to LBJ by a Senator in or about 1966, declare Victory and pull out. The Support for the war was still they but declining. LBJ started to pull troops out as soon as the Polls show the Majority of Americans no longer supported the War. Thus "Vietnamization" (A term coined by Nixon the following year when Nixon continued the program) was started by LBJ in the summer of 1968 and I suspect LBJ would have Declared Victory that year and pull out, except it was an election year and LBJ was hoping Humphrey would win (and doing all LBJ could so Humphrey could win, including balancing the budget, something no President except Clinton (And then only once) has managed to do afterward).

Most people dislike what happened, for it is clear JFK's decision to remove Diem, lead to an direct increase in the support for the Viet Cong in 1964 among the peasantry. That support permitted the Viet Cong to increase troop levels, do to increase volunteers but also increase assistance in the form of rice from the peasants (i.e. more rice from their supporters among the peasants, meant increase ability to arm larger and larger forces in South VIetnam, prior to 1964 the largest units the Viet Cong had in South Vietnam was Company level i.e. 100 or so men (armed with small arms and maybe light anti-tank weapons), in 1964 they were able to form Battalions, 1000 or so men with heavy weapons, including Mortars, heavy Machine Guns and large anti-tank weapons. The situation in 1964 was getting out of hand as far was the South Vietnamese Army was concerned.

My point is quite simple, Diem's removal meant the US would have to go into Vietnam no matter who was President. LBJ seems to have accepted this unpleasant fact at the time of Diem's removal (and why LBJ opposed it), JFK should have known this, but wanted to remove anyone who would NOT fight the Communists like JFK and the CIA wanted them to.

This LBJ's action as to Vietnam was forced on him by JFK's actions. On the other hand, LBJ's handling of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 can only be contributed to LBJ. JFK did a better speech, but one on one with members of Congress no one was better then LBJ. Unless JFK would have left LBJ handle the 1964 Civil Rights Act (something most JFK watchers doubted even at that time) the Civil Rights Act would have been Filibustered to death (or compromised into something useless so to save JFK's face). The Voting Rights Act (which came out of the LBJ's leadership of the Civil Rights group within the White house) would never have even been proposed. As to the rest of the Great Society Program (including Medicare), while JFK supported them, was he going to waste Political Capital on getting them passed? Today it is assumed JFK would have, but in the 1960s many people doubted that but they had a disadvantage, they had dealt with JFK the President NOT JFK the martyred President (Of all of the Senators in the US Senate in the 1950s, the policies JFK went on record as being for and against most closely matched was Nixon's). In simple term, JFK acted in much of the same way Nixon would have acted (through without Nixon's tendency to view that everyone was out to get him).

I always like mentioning Madison's decision to declare War on Great Britain in 1812, not because he believed in such a war, but that Congress and the American people (outside of New England, New England opposed the war of 1812) wanted the war. The same with LBJ in 1965, he send in troops for that is what the American People wanted him to do, for the American People would NEVER have forgiven him, or support ANY of his other programs, if Vietnam fell to the Communists in 1965-1966. Whoever would have been President would have had to face the same demand of the American People, including JFK had he lived.

Do to the politics of the US in the 1960s, Vietnam was going to happen, no matter who was President.