How did Ken Cuccinelli Lose by only 2.5 Points?

[Proud Public Servant]

8. Can we take off the tinfoil a minute?

First, only one poll ever had McAuliffe up by double digits, so let's put that wholoe "double-digit lead" nonsense to rest.. But beyond that, has Nate Silver taught you nothing? You don't look at individual polls, people; you look at averages.

Okay, so what did the averages tell us? McAuliffe was up by 6.7 (per RCP). But also Sarvis was at 9.6 (he finished at 6.6) and about 6% of Va voters remained undecided throughout polling.

So what does that tell us? It looks like the undecideds broke slightly in favor of Cuccinelli (3.5-2.5), and about 1/3 of Sarvis' support ran back to the GOP at the last minute (a very common phenomenon with 3rd party candidates).

There is really nothing to see here, especially since McAuliffe is an opportunistic, 3rd-way weasel who generated absolutely no passion in our own party (except among Clintonistas). There was no reason to supress teh Dem vote; real Democrats, including those who came out for him, HATE this guy.

The scandal is not in the vote count. The scandal is that we ran a sleazebag like McAuliffe at all.