There Just Isn't Good Evidence That 'Shy' Trump Voters Exist l FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

[patphil]

4. My brother-in-law is a hard core Republican.

Ironically my sister is a strong liberal Democrat.
When I talked to her the other day, she said that Doug wasn't going to vote for Trump because of the way he mishandled the Covid pandemic.
But he couldn't bring himself to vote for Biden.
It's a safe, Sue Collins type of, choice since they live in New York State which is going to be a big Biden win regardless of his vote.
But, I think there is a pretty good chance he isn't alone in this decision not to vote for Trump.

I think the shyness is in a lot of Republicans being unable to seal the deal and go all the way to actually vote against Trump.
They'll do a stealth "vote" of no confidence by just not filling in the circle next to Trump's name on the ballot.
In public they're still hard core Republican, and their down ballot choices will show this.

I don't believe there will be this "shy" Republican surge for Trump on election day.
More of a "shy" Republican Trump dump.