The Day the Earth nearly Died

[caseymoz]

19. Why didn't the Eocene Thermal Maximum lead to extinction then?

They estimate, by the latest information I have, that the Siberian Traps Eruptions triggered the disaster by raising global temperatures five degrees Celsius.

During the Eocene Thermal Maximum, 55 million years ago, temperatures went up six degrees Celsius over 20 thousand years and remained about that high for another 100 thousand years. There was no oceanic ice for 100 thousand years.

There was also no mass extinction even on the order of the Cretaceous, much less the Permian. For life, it was a mere speed bump.

Which two hundred years in the Permian extinction are they comparing this to? Look at the two previous theories they had on the Permian extinction, and how long did they last? Did those scientists sound any less certain than the ones now with the current theory? Trends you see in the previous 200 years say nothing about trends in the next.

I'm not saying do nothing about Global Warming; I'm not saying don't take drastic measures; I'm not saying even disbelieve the theory.

I'm saying the extinction scenario they describe is hardly deductive. Paleontologists studying periods hundreds of millions of years ago, from rather scant information compared to 100 thousand years ago, may be more careful about what they say if they knew their theories would be used to debate major policies.