Am I Like the Last Person in California to Know This?

[simak]

4. Yep. Natl Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

Once the compact has the necessary number of votes, there's a schedule for becoming active. It has to be active by a certain date, or it won't take effect till the next election. Likewise, states must exit the compact by a certain date or they will be considered committed to an upcoming election.

The compact guarantees that the popular candidate gets at least 270 electoral votes. This usually happens anyway, but there have been a few exceptions, notably Gore v Bush. The compact prevents that from happening again.

All previous occurrences have resulted in a Republican winning the electoral college even though a Democrat won the popular. So your example, Jeb Bush, is more likely to lose because of the compact than to win.

However, if a state does have its electors go to the candidate who lost its own popular vote as a result of the compact, don't be surprised to see them exit the compact before the next election. I expect the compact will collapse after one election.