Wisconsin
In reply to the discussion: Wisconsin aftermath: Voters in disbelief over Walker victory [View all]mojowork_n
(2,354 posts)Comparing the Obama 2008 totals with this year's may
be entertaining, it may even be worthwhile, but it's such
a superficial comparison -- it's only a starting point.
Have any answers to any of these questions:
Obama had a 56.2% recorded share in Wisconsin and 63.3% in the unadjusted exit poll (2.4% margin of error). Assuming Obama had a 60% True Vote share, then to match the recall vote, Walker needed the following:
1) 81% of McCain and 71% of Obama voters turned out.
2) He needed to win 25% of Obama and 95% of McCain voters.
3) He needed 46% of new voters who did not vote in 2010. The 2012 exit poll indicates he had 45% and that new voters comprised 13% of the total vote.
Not my questions or numbers, THIS is where I found them:
http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/06/06/wisconsin-recall-the-adjusted-final-exit-poll-was-forced-to-match-an-unlikely-recorded-vote/