LF poo-poo'd the idea of a post-ref challenge to Cameron, and he's both no friend of the PM and a proper life-long outer...
Chris Grayling did the same - he specifically denied that there were 50 Tory MP's ready to go for a no confidence vote.
personally i don't doubt that there are Tory MP's so enraged by Cameron, and probably not previous fans of him, who want to pull the handle, but do i believe there are 50 Tory MP's who, assuming Reman wins, will be so obsessed by bitterness that they will risk a GE with the Tories imploding and Labour, if not level pegging, then not imploding? no, i don't.
on a much wider point, not purely about the Tories, but this shows the danger of political parties in hock to their activists rather than a much wider pool of more casual supporters - when cranks, obsessives and swivell-eyed loons sit on the constituancy selection panels, they tend to select cranks, obsessives and swivel-eyed loons.
if anyone is thinking that this could be an opportunity for Labour to sneak in a win, i'd be more cautious - from conversations i've had with members from other constituancies across the midlands and south, which is where Labour needs to win seats in order to stand a hope in hell of even getting to coalition territory - the party is several years away from being in a position to fight a GE. not just no candidates selected, but the only possibles at the moment are people that half the party wouldn't vote for. we, for example, have almost no party infrastructure, active party members in the low-tens, and a civil war in the CLP. this, again, in a seat that Labour have lost to an independant because it wasn't good enough on the NHS...
in the event of a snap election, i think Labour would do well in the 'traditional' Labour constituancies in the north and north midlands - in the target seats in the south and south and west midlands i think it would do no better than in 2015, and in one or two seats in West Mids, Dudley, Sandwell, Oldbury area, i wouldn't fall off my seat if UKIP got a win. i see Labours actual vote going up in Scotland, but i don't see it delivering more than a tiny handfull of seats.
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