Don't be fooled by election results - Tories still face uphill battle in their bid to crush Labour

[Denzil_DC]

5. An update from Curtice, based on the last week's polling:

(My brief summary under each of his points since we can't use formatting in posts at the moment.)

John Curtice: Five things the last week of polling can tell us

1. The Conservative lead has shrunk dramatically

(All pollsters show a substantial narrowing of the Tory lead, ranging from 5-14 points.)

2. Nine points might sound like quite a healthy lead – until we remember one crucial fact

(The Tories' 7-point lead in 2015 gave them a majority of 12, a 9-point lead in this election could give them a majority of 30-40, but some recent polls point to a lead of less than 7 points, which might deprive them of an overall majority.)

3. May is likely to leave this election weakened

(A landslide could be unlikely, which would deprive May of the strong mandate she assumed she'd get.)

4. One key factor could scupper Labour

(Turnout among the 18-24 age group is crucial.)

5. The North could help May

(A number of polls have pointed to strong performance by the Tories in the North and Midlands of England - Labour's heartland, and where it's most vulnerable - though YouGov's megapoll looking at individual seats casts doubt on this and hints at a hung parliament.)

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/five-things-last-week-polling-can-tell-us/