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muriel_volestrangler

(101,264 posts)
1. I don't think it's a major problem
Fri Mar 26, 2021, 08:16 PM
Mar 2021

The latest figures which show which vaccines have been used are here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting

By 14th March, 10.9 million Pfizer 1st doses had been given. Another 1.3 million 2nd doses had been given, mostly Pfizer. Archived versions of that page show the Pfizer 1st dose number had only gone up from 10.7 million 2 weeks before that, indicating they knew they had to reserve the rest of that vaccine for 2nd doses - Ursula von der Leyen said about 20 million Pfizer doses were shipped from the EU to the UK, and 1 million AZ. Stopping Pfizer at that point matches with the NHS reminder to vaccinators that the Pfizer "supply is finite".

In that same 2 weeks, the number of AZ 1st doses went from 9.7 million to 13.7 million.

So it looks like they stopped giving Pfizer 1st doses when they saw they might not get any more. They could probably do with another 2 million of them (a total of 40 million were ordered).

By now, 29.3 million 1st doses have been given, so about 18.4 million AZ. It is said AZ can deliver about 2 million doses a week in the UK, if everything goes right (and we do see 4 million were given in 2 weeks from the above figures). That can cover the required 18.4 million 2nd AZ doses in 12 weeks, with a bit to spare. The Moderna vaccine has been authorised, and 17 million doses ordered, if the manufacturer can deliver it (nearly all made in the USA).

If no more doses come from the EU, the rate of 1st doses will have to slow down, but not stop (and they've already said they're not going to start on the remaining under 50s before May). The main problem would be the last 2 million Pfizer doses, which they'll need for the 2nd half of May.

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