Last edited Mon Mar 29, 2021, 11:50 AM - Edit history (1)
Given the Greens' current promising performance in the polls and the probable lack of cross-over between their potential voters and those who would be likely to vote for the Alba Party (Alba looks set to be socially conservative on some issues the Greens hold dear, like the SNP-led Gender Recognition Act), it's unlikely Salmond will directly poach many of their voters, but adding another party to the lists could lead to some unpredictable effects. If only it was as simple as a trade-off between the Greens and Alba! On the other hand, a noisy cabal of hardline Salmond-friendly independence supporters on social media had been saying they would spoil their ballots rather than vote for the SNP in the coming election, so I guess they now have a home.
The D'Hondt system is notoriously difficult to game, and it's generally been felt by pollsters and demographers that it's best not to even try. Apart from anything else, it could hand Johnson & Co. a great get-out clause that the final result is somehow invalid if it shows a strong majority for pro-independence parties. I have some sympathy with that - we will need losers' assent for any moves that result from the election (including an eventual independence referendum if it goes for Yes), and anything that feels like steamrollering and "undemocratic" will just feed into the unionist propaganda.
On recent polling, even after the Salmond inquiry shenanigans at Holyrood, the SNP looked set for a clear majority with just the constituency vote, so Salmond's bluster about a "supermajority" is unnecessary and could be unhelpful. As Sturgeon pointed out the other day, he's a gambler. The SNP picking up some list seats would give it a safety net if some of the constituencies don't pan out. The worst case for the SNP (other than falling far short of a majority) would be Salmond and a couple of other Alba MSPs being given the role of queen/kingmaker, which has been the Greens' role in recent times and one most people have been pretty comfortable with.
It remains to be seen what sort of percentage preliminary polling shows for Alba, and where. Anything less than 5% makes them not worth voting for, and potentially counterproductive. There are a few other new pro-independence parties, one of which has basically folded into Alba, but they've been polling at a small fraction of a percentage point. Previous pro-independence parties/alliances, like RISE, have severely disappointed themselves despite having a very high opinion of themselves.
A lot will hinge on Salmond's personal popularity, which is currently very poor. He lost his seat as an MP to a Tory in his own constituency in the 2017 election, so he's not been invulnerable even in the northeast region seen as his home territory and where he'll be standing this time.
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