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United Kingdom

In reply to the discussion: Fuck [View all]

Denzil_DC

(9,168 posts)
10. It wasn't really a "splitter"-based vote.
Fri May 8, 2015, 09:20 AM
May 2015

It took votes from people who aren't in favour of a further referendum, plus those who're not currently in favour of one any time soon (like Nicola Sturgeon and myself, among many others), to get to the 56-seat final tally and 50.2% of the votes in Scotland.

It's more to do with Labour (and the other opposition parties) in Scotland being totally flat-footed and tone-deaf to the mood among many of the electorate. They banged on about a further referendum much, much more than the SNP did. They went heavily negative when people were hungry for a positive vision - in that way, they treated this election as a continuation of the recent referendum, rather than a contest in its own right.

I linked to focus group research in an earlier thread that showed this tactic was utterly counterproductive as it made people more likely to vote SNP - whether because they were in favour of the idea or whether they were disgusted at the scaremongering tactics is open to debate.

What may provoke a mood for a further move to "split" sooner rather than later is the reaction from the rest of the UK, and how things pan out if and when we have an EU referendum, for instance. That could lead to irresistible pressure for another Scottish referendum if the vote is to leave the EU.

I share in the mood of "Fuck!" about Cameron finally getting a very slim mandate of his own. It's some small comfort that the Con/Lib Dem alliance had a 40-seat majority, whereas Cameron's majority is now in single figures. He'll be without the marginal moderating influence of the Lib Dems, but more hostage to the further right wing within his party, which has never embraced him wholeheartedly, if at all.

There are also a number of scandals due to break fully down the line which may put a different complexion on things and even provoke by-elections. All the major Westminster parties have been complicit in covering up organized sexual abuse of vulnerable children and adults, for instance, and it looks like that issue will come to a head under Cameron's premiership.

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Fuck [View all] LeftishBrit May 2015 OP
I just heard the same thing madaboutharry May 2015 #1
I second that sentiment! nt dorkzilla May 2015 #2
Cameron? Erich Bloodaxe BSN May 2015 #3
Labour didn't run the greatest of campaigns T_i_B May 2015 #5
It wasn't really a "splitter"-based vote. Denzil_DC May 2015 #10
What happened? The polls said there was only a one point difference still_one May 2015 #4
The running polls got it wrong. Denzil_DC May 2015 #11
One last minute poll wasn't made public, because they thought it was wrong muriel_volestrangler May 2015 #13
Heh. Oh dear. Bad call! Denzil_DC May 2015 #14
Do They use fredamae May 2015 #6
No, they don't. non sociopath skin May 2015 #7
Well, then..It is fredamae May 2015 #8
If you call council employees "voting machines". mwooldri May 2015 #19
I'd say. Triana May 2015 #9
Looks like a bloodbath malthaussen May 2015 #12
Looking at many sources this morning TBF May 2015 #15
I'm really sorry my UK friends. lovemydog May 2015 #16
Huh...Conservative-lite didn't work. Oh well, time to run Conservateive-lite in the US again. jeff47 May 2015 #17
There go my plans to move there shenmue May 2015 #18
Nothing but bloody Tory. :( mwooldri May 2015 #20
Indeed. potone May 2015 #21
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