Fuck

[muriel_volestrangler]

13. One last minute poll wasn't made public, because they thought it was wrong

“Snatching Defeat From the Jaws of Victory”

As in the Scottish Independence Referendum, where Survation shared “joint honours” with Ipsos Mori for accuracy, Survation conducted a voting intention telephone poll the day before the election (Wednesday) with three specific attributes:
...
This was conducted over the afternoon and evening of Wednesday 6th May, as close as possible to the election to capture any late “swing” to any party – the same method we used in our telephone polls during the Independence Referendum that produced a 54% and a 53% figure for “no”.

This poll produced figures of:

Survation Telephone, Ballot Paper Prompt:
CON 37%
LAB 31%
LD 10
UKIP 11
GRE 5
Others (including the SNP) 6%
Which would have been very close to the final result.

We had flagged that we were conducting this poll to the Daily Mirror as something we might share as an interesting check on our online vs our telephone methodology, but the results seemed so “out of line” with all the polling conducted by ourselves and our peers – what poll commentators would term an “outlier” – that I “chickened out” of publishing the figures – something I’m sure I’ll always regret.

http://survation.com/snatching-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory/

Those are GB percentages (ie excluding NI); figures for the whole of the UK with just 1 seat remaining (which will be a tight Con-Lib Dem race; add 0.1% to the figures below for each of those, probably) are:
Con 36.9%
Lab 30.5%
LD 7.8%
UKIP 12.6%
Green 3.8%
SNP 4.7%
PC 0.6%
NI parties about 2.2%