Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

pnwmom

(109,021 posts)
16. Exit polls have plenty of reasons of their own for being inaccurate.
Sun Apr 24, 2016, 10:09 AM
Apr 2016

It's not as easy as you think to get a good sample. First, they have guess what precincts to sample based on past elections (which aren't always that predictive). Then they have to grab every 4th or 5th person (or whatever) who comes past their station -- even though people often come out in clumps and most of those people don't want to stop and talk (and don't have to). Young people are more likely to cooperate than older people. And people who voted absentee don't walk past at all.

In New York's case, up to 20% in the Dem primary identified themselves as independent. But it was a closed primary -- no one should have been an independent. How could this happen? The people who filed the emergency lawsuit to open the primary were urging independents to vote by asking for a provisional ballot. Those votes can get counted by exit pollers, but wouldn't have been included in that night's results, since the judge did NOT rule to open the primary.

I agree that there should be an investigation into the problems we know occurred. But I haven't seen any evidence so far that the occurred in a way that would benefit Hillary more than Bernie.

There are too many numbers that don't make sense Kalidurga Apr 2016 #1
No one wants to talk about it passy Apr 2016 #4
Scary the polls were close enough they could get away with it if the did it. Kalidurga Apr 2016 #5
The 538 aggregate of polls put Hillary 15 points ahead. That's not close. pnwmom Apr 2016 #6
Yes. There are widespread descrepancies that favor the establishment candidate. cui bono Apr 2016 #9
Exit polls have plenty of reasons of their own for being inaccurate. pnwmom Apr 2016 #16
Interesting how you dismiss exit-polls entirely ... passy Apr 2016 #17
No, I don't dismiss them. They are imperfect but useful tools, like all polls. n/t pnwmom Apr 2016 #19
It still doesn't explain the numbers I talk about in my post and ... passy Apr 2016 #11
well MFM008 Apr 2016 #2
I'm not talking about mistakes passy Apr 2016 #3
The newly registered could have been balanced out by people moving or dying. pnwmom Apr 2016 #7
So Kings is the only county with people moving or dying? passy Apr 2016 #12
Who "won" NY isn't what really matters. The delegate count is. eomer Apr 2016 #10
Who won New York and by how much is what really matters ... passy Apr 2016 #13
OK, what I was arguing against is the talking point saying it doesn't matter because... eomer Apr 2016 #14
You miss the point Scootaloo Apr 2016 #20
Silly lefties. Unicorns, rainbows and fair elections are just blue sky pipe dreams. Scuba Apr 2016 #8
K&R passy Apr 2016 #15
Disgusting. bkkyosemite Apr 2016 #18
Why do we have to ELECT our Queen? RoccoR5955 Apr 2016 #21
Wall Street anointed her autorank May 2016 #22
Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Election Reform»Silly numbers from New Yo...»Reply #16