Claire McCaskill got a second term from Missouri as a result of voter disapproval of the bad behavior of her opponent, and this one looks similar. If Greitens wins the GOP nomination, and it looks like that at this point, I don't believe he'll win the general election. I think Ryan may have a close race but will win more easily than the pundits think, and I think there's been enough of a shift in NC to put a Democrat into a statewide office by about 1 or 2 points.

Florida will be close, but Demmings will have two big boost in a state like that. One will be the momentum from the Roe v. Wade issue, in a state where 67% of the voters don't want Roe overturned, and the January 6th hearings. I think that's going to boost the Democrats by 4 or 5 points overall, and in most polls, she's dead even or if trailing, by just one or two points.