Hillary Clinton
In reply to the discussion: Cokie Roberts just said on MSNBC [View all]CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)....chewed up with ideological prejudices and regenerated.
That said, let's look at NY. Here is the latest poll of NY - Clinton vs Trump:
New York: Trump vs. Clinton Emerson Clinton 55, Trump 36 Clinton +19
The Democratic primary vote in NY was much larger than the Republican vote and Hillary had many more votes than Donald Trump . So if it is just Democrats verses Republican voters, Hillary wins unless a large percentage of the Sanders voters defect to the Greens or doesn't vote. However, also keep in mind that some percentage of the 40% who did not vote for Trump will not vote for him in the GE and may even vote for Hillary.
So what is is at stake is the "3 Million" independent voters in NY. If Sanders expected a big boost if they could vote, then a good number of them have to be voters who are too liberal to be Democrats. Those should be Democratic voters unless they go Green or sit on their hands. Then there will be moderates who reliably vote for Democrats and those who reliably vote Republican, leaving those in the middle who vary their vote depending who the two candidates are. Normally NY as a state is reliably Democratic, but the GE in NY will depend on how the independent vote this time around.
Can anyone in NY comment on the nature of the independents in NY? Based on the poll results above it appears that they usually vote Democratic and it this case don't like Trump.