Democrats 2016: Not Feeling the Bern Despite big crowds, Sanders remains a huge underdog to Clinton

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17. "Nonwhite versus white voters" from your link, Justin

Sanders cannot begin to match Clinton’s strong support among minorities; it’s no accident that his break-out states are heavily white Iowa and New Hampshire. Sanders is used to appealing to Vermont’s liberal and very white electorate.

According to the most recent Census Bureau estimates, Vermont has the second-largest percentage of non-Hispanic whites in the country, behind only neighboring Maine. Notably, New Hampshire and Iowa rank fourth and sixth, respectively. Demographically, the Democratic electorates in the first two primary or caucus states just happen to look a lot like Sanders’ home state. It also doesn’t hurt Sanders that New Hampshire is next door, reducing the costs of visiting the first-in-the-nation primary state.

Meanwhile, Clinton has a lifetime of experience appealing to African American and Hispanic voters. Though blacks strayed to Barack Obama in 2008, both the African-American leadership and rank-and-file seem solidly back in the Clinton camp for 2016. The most recent national polls peg Clinton’s support among white Democrats in the low-to-mid 50s, while her support among blacks is in the 60s. Meanwhile, Sanders may be in double-digits nationally now, but he’s not there with African Americans. While it’s true that Clinton did lead with blacks nationally this time eight years ago, her edge was smaller: One national Pew poll showed her up 47% to 34% with blacks over Obama in late July 2007. That’s a smaller lead than she has now, and obviously Obama always had great potential among black voters. There’s not much indication Sanders can be anywhere near as mighty a force in the black community.


Thank you.