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Hillary Clinton
In reply to the discussion: Nate Silver's latest prediction for Indiana (83 delegates) [View all]Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)16. Ok. But those have been horribly inaccurate.
He simply takes the polls, gets a mean, generates the confidence interval, and that's it.
I don't hate him, and I used his site a lot in the first third of the primaries. Like everyone, he totally whiffed on Michigan. But, 538 never figured it out in open primaries while a few pollsters did.
We could go back and look at his projections I suppose, but .... nah. I'd rather concede the point than work that hard.
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That's not the important part! It's the percentages that drive the primaries on the Dem side.
Buzz Clik
Apr 2016
#12
But if you scroll down the same page as the likelihood prediction, you see distributions of
spooky3
Apr 2016
#15
I'm not sure Silver, who doesn't poll states himself, can do what you are asking.
SaschaHM
May 2016
#37
Honestly, I kept thinking IN might be a pickup for BS. Obviously, Nate disagrees.
Tarheel_Dem
Apr 2016
#5
Let's hope that's the case. But Jane says that BS is about to explode with momentum.
Tarheel_Dem
Apr 2016
#18
I'm not sure Sanders organized well before the deadline to register this month.
SaschaHM
Apr 2016
#23
Indiana should be roughly a 45 - 38 split for Clinton -- Net 7 delegates.
LiberalFighter
Apr 2016
#30
But the college vote in Bloomington and West Lafayette is going to put him over the top
bluestateguy
Apr 2016
#35