Indiana should be roughly a 45 - 38 split for Clinton -- Net 7 delegates. (Reply #30)

In the discussion thread: Nate Silver's latest prediction for Indiana (83 delegates) [View all]

Thu Apr 28, 2016, 04:48 PM

30. Indiana should be roughly a 45 - 38 split for Clinton -- Net 7 delegates.

Based on current data it should result in delegates as follows:

Clinton: 1,709
Sanders: 1,409
Spread: 300

Remaining Delegates: 933

Based on supposed Bernie Math that states the nominee must have the majority of combined pledged and unpledged delegates using just pledged delegates the following:

Needed pledged delegates:
Clinton: 674
Sanders: 974

Needed percent of pledged delegates:
Clinton: 72.2%
Sanders: 104.4%

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43 replies	Author	Time	Post
Nate Silver's latest prediction for Indiana (83 delegates) [View all]	kstewart33	Apr 2016	OP
Wow! More "no-mentum" on display for Sanders!!	stopbush	Apr 2016	#1
First is was Joe-mentum, now it's Slow-mentum.	CrowCityDem	Apr 2016	#2
Republicans would call this	displacedtexan	Apr 2016	#28
It looks like has campaign has collapsed.	Agnosticsherbet	Apr 2016	#3
I agree	workinclasszero	Apr 2016	#7
It could be finally happening!	pandr32	Apr 2016	#14
Silver was a huge disappointment this cycle.	Buzz Clik	Apr 2016	#4
He says in his 538 podcasts that primaries are hard to predict	Her Sister	Apr 2016	#6
Geez. Hard projections are what economists/statisticians are supposed to do.	Buzz Clik	Apr 2016	#9
Didn't he correctly call every Dem primary on Tuesday?	kstewart33	Apr 2016	#11
That's not the important part! It's the percentages that drive the primaries on the Dem side.	Buzz Clik	Apr 2016	#12
But if you scroll down the same page as the likelihood prediction, you see distributions of	spooky3	Apr 2016	#15
Ok. But those have been horribly inaccurate.	Buzz Clik	Apr 2016	#16
How? He only got MI wrong and that was only	Liberal_Stalwart71	Apr 2016	#21
I'm not sure Silver, who doesn't poll states himself, can do what you are asking.	SaschaHM	May 2016	#37
Ah, but he does weight his polls according to their method and track record.	Buzz Clik	May 2016	#38
Honestly, I kept thinking IN might be a pickup for BS. Obviously, Nate disagrees.	Tarheel_Dem	Apr 2016	#5
I thought so, too.	okasha	Apr 2016	#13
Let's hope that's the case. But Jane says that BS is about to explode with momentum.	Tarheel_Dem	Apr 2016	#18
You can't have the fans leaving in the seventh inning.	Koinos	Apr 2016	#20
Again, BSers have earned that moniker for a	Liberal_Stalwart71	Apr 2016	#22
I'm not sure Sanders organized well before the deadline to register this month.	SaschaHM	Apr 2016	#23
I hope he's right!	Cha	Apr 2016	#34
Good to hear ...	BlueMTexpat	Apr 2016	#8
We will be seeing the results soon.	Thinkingabout	Apr 2016	#10
Excellent!	sheshe2	Apr 2016	#17
Hurray for Hillary! (Of course Trump will say it's just that "woman card"	skylucy	Apr 2016	#19
Must be one of then Confederate states	Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin	Apr 2016	#24
and this with no expenses too	robbedvoter	Apr 2016	#25
with 74 years of advance planning the outcome should not be in doubt! nt	msongs	Apr 2016	#26
California; probability of Hillary to win = 88%	Maru Kitteh	Apr 2016	#27
Indiana only has 83 pledged delegates that will be decided Tuesday.	LiberalFighter	Apr 2016	#29
Indiana should be roughly a 45 - 38 split for Clinton -- Net 7 delegates.	LiberalFighter	Apr 2016	#30
awesome :-)	Maru Kitteh	May 2016	#39
So Indiana is a closed Primary?	Cha	Apr 2016	#31
nope, it's open	DemonGoddess	Apr 2016	#32
Ah! thank you, DG!	Cha	Apr 2016	#33
But the college vote in Bloomington and West Lafayette is going to put him over the top	bluestateguy	Apr 2016	#35
Especially since it is exam week for colleges in Indiana.	LiberalFighter	May 2016	#41
But they're into the Final Exams now.	George II	May 2016	#42
Now up to 91% !!!	Maru Kitteh	May 2016	#36
The Polls Plus forecast is 91/9 with Clinton ahead by 11%	George II	May 2016	#40
Good to hear. I read he was catching up.	SharonClark	May 2016	#43

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