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Hillary Clinton

In reply to the discussion: 538 UPDATE..HRC [View all]

BlueMTexpat

(15,694 posts)
9. LOL - he can say what he
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:13 AM
May 2016

wants and can ignore Hillary's results, which still are better than his, all he wants. That won't change the facts.

The facts are - still - that the majority of voters are NOT feeling the Bern. He can only eke out wins in open Democratic primaries and even then, not by much. Yes, he can win caucuses, where his supporters drown out others a la Susan Sarandon. But there are only two open primaries remaining: Puerto Rico and Montana, neither with the BIG delegate numbers he needs and where even if he wins as is very likely in MT at least, Hillary will also continue to pick up delegates.

WVA, CA, NJ and SD are semi-closed. Guam and the Virgin Islands both have closed caucuses. Guam is this weekend and Hillary should do well there, possibly even wipe out any tiny gains Bernie may have earned last night. The VI caucus results will be anyone's guess. Each one already has a SD from the VI per this. http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/VI-D

Right now, the NYTimes is showing Hillary with 37/83 delegates and Bernie with 43/83 based on the IN results, with 98% of the votes counted. Per this, neither has yet achieved 538 target goals. Yet even if Bernie makes or surpasses his, he will not even make a dent in Hillary's pledged delegate lead. It's all over but for Bernie's shouting - and continue to shout he will, I have no doubt.

Now that Ted Cruz has officially pulled out of the GOP race, the media may - finally - begin to do some serious vetting on Bernie: http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/03/ted-cruz-suspend-campaign-president-indiana-primary

I love how The Guardian calls Bernie's win in IN a "shock" - it was hardly that when the polls were close and it was an open primary, where at least some Bernie voters were deliberate mischief-makers rather than TBs.

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538 UPDATE..HRC [View all] misterhighwasted May 2016 OP
It's tightened since then. BlueMTexpat May 2016 #1
He can't ever recover, even with a close win tonight misterhighwasted May 2016 #2
This message was self-deleted by its author CentralCoaster May 2016 #8
If it's even remotely close, we'll hear that old... displacedtexan May 2016 #3
That's the sad thing because BlueMTexpat May 2016 #4
Could his strategy be to use up as much of his donations as possible justiceischeap May 2016 #5
Right now, I find very little BlueMTexpat May 2016 #6
After his *cough* speech *cough* to the supers, if it's close... displacedtexan May 2016 #7
LOL - he can say what he BlueMTexpat May 2016 #9
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