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Hillary Clinton

In reply to the discussion: Interesting analysis. [View all]

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
12. Why the article is totally misleading
Wed May 4, 2016, 05:23 PM
May 2016

The main problem with supposition in the article is that the author failed to realize that Republicans can't simply decide to go vote in every remaining Democratic primary and caucus. Note that most of the remaining primaries and caucuses are "closed" to everyone but registered Democrats. (The number of delegates for each contest is provided in parenthesis.

Sat, May 7 Guam Primary (12) Closed
Tue, May 10 West Virginia Primary (37) Mixed
Tue, May 17 Kentucky Primary (61) Closed
Tue, May 17 Oregon Primary (73) Closed
Sat, Jun 4 Virgin Islands Caucus (12) Open
Sun, Jun 5 Puerto Rico Caucus (67) Open
Tue, Jun 7 California Primary (546) Mixed
Tue, Jun 7 Montana Primary (27) Open
Tue, Jun 7 New Jersey Primary (142) Closed
Tue, Jun 7 New Mexico Primary (43) Closed
Tue, Jun 7 North Dakota Caucus (23) Closed
Tue, Jun 7 South Dakota Primary (25) Closed
Tue, Jun 14 District of Columbia Primary (46) Closed

Rules vary for "mixed" primaries. According to official documentation I have found on mixed :

The California mixed primary it works like this: "The Democratic and American Independent parties notified the Secretary of State that they will allow voters who did not state a political party preference to vote the presidential ballot of their parties in the upcoming June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election." This to me means that independents (voters who did not state a political party preference) can vote in the California Democratic, but registered Republicans (who did state a party preference) cannot. "Voter registration closes 15 days before the primary election." So currently registered Republicans can vote in the June 7th Democratic primary, but they will have to hurry to change their party affiliation by 5/20. (I don't think many Republicans will bother.)

The West Virginia mixed primary it works like this: "The two major parties both allow unaffiliated voters to participate in party primaries. Unaffiliated voters choose one party's ballot. Party members must vote in their party's primary." "Deadline to register to vote for the Primary Election is April 19th" So independents can vote, but registered Republicans can't."

So the only open contests where Republicans can do their data work are the Virgin Islands Caucus (12 delegates) Puerto Rico Caucus (67 delegates) and the Montana Primary (27 delegates). So only 106 delegates are at risk and 79 of those delegates will be elected in caucus. Are Republicans going to want to sit through a caucus to cast their votes for Bernie? Maybe, but I think that is unlikely.

All in all, Republicans are not well positioned to help Sanders win the remaining primaries and caucuses.


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