The Death of Justice Scalia Puts Presidential Race in a New Perspective [View all]

[CajunBlazer]

When I wrote the blog post last July on the affect the Presidential election would have on the path forward of the Supreme Court (The Supreme Court after the Upcoming Elections – An Analysis), I had no idea that the issue would become prevalent before the general election. I believed at the time that we would be dealing with retirements and/or deaths of the Supreme Court Justices during the next President’s first term, or more certainly during his/her second term if reelected.

However the sudden death of Justice Antonin Scalia has added a new perspective to this election cycle. Of course, one would normally assume that President Obama’s nominee to replace Scalia would take office before the November elections. However, I find it almost impossible to believe that the Republican controlled Senate will confirm President Obama’s nominee if that person even if that person is not a true progressive. Already I am hearing the new Republican refrain: “It is traditional not to confirm a Supreme Court Justice during a Presidential Election. That choice should be deferred to will of the people”. Several Republican Senators were singing variations of this tune including Mitch McConnell. They obviously will do their level best to delay confirmation of any nominee until after the next President takes office. I think that it is entirely likely that the first task of the next President of the United States will be to choose Justice Scalia’s replacement.

Even if President Obama is successful in having his nominee confirmed, that is unlikely to be the end of the Supreme Court drama. Scalia, who was almost 80 when he died, was only the second oldest Justice on the Court. Ruth Bader Ginsburg will be 83 when the next President takes office and will be 91 if she remains on the court for the next eight years. Anthony Kennedy will be 80 in July of this year and Stephen Breyer will be 78 by the time the next President takes the oath of office. Ginsburg and Kennedy have had health issues in the past; in Ginsburg case they were very serious health issues. It is entirely possible that one or more of the remaining Justices will no longer be on the bench four years from now. That is even more likely to be the case in the next eight years if the President we elect in November wins a second term.

The untimely death of Anton Scalia will call attention to the role the Presidential election will have on setting the direction of the Supreme Court for the next 20 years. Surely it will reemphasize the need by both the Republican and Democratic Parties to nominate “electable” candidates. Those candidates also need to have “long coattails” because the fight for control of the Senate in the November will also take center stage in the battle to control the nation’s highest court.

Until now the fringes of both parties have been dominating the nomination cycles with their anger and disenchantment. .......

Rest of article here: The Death of Justice Scalia Puts Presidential Race in a New Perspective