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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Topics » Politics & Government » Hillary Clinton (Group) » No Dual Voting in NV (Hil... » Reply #8

Response to jmowreader (Reply #5)

Fri Feb 19, 2016, 06:20 PM

8. Not very many.

Let's just play a real quick game with simple numbers, but the overall answer is, "Not very many people need to do this."

Caucus Goers, Democratic: 1000
Sanders supporters: 470 (47%)
Clinton supporters: 530 (53%)

The percentages are, I think, a bit extreme. I don't expect her to win by six percent in a clean game. But we'll run with it.

Republicans send 61 people (6.1% of Dem turnout) to caucus for Bernie:
Sanders supporters: 531 (50.04%)
Clinton supporters: 530 (49.96%)

It's oversimplified a lot, but roughly? Take the percentage by which Clinton would win in a clean caucus and multiply that by the number of Democratic voters.

The Republicans would need to send that many people...plus 1...for a just-barely-win for Sanders.

I notice that just over 10,000 people showed up in 2008 for the caucus state-wide in NV.

Therefore, if we expect a 6% Clinton win, the Republicans will need to send 601 people to the caucuses. Overall. But they would absolutely need to be apportioned correctly to just overcome a Clinton lead in each district, which means you want a safety.

Call it 1,200 to be completely sure.

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