No Dual Voting in NV (Hillary Clinton Group)

[jmowreader]

11. It may be more than you think

I went to https://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=4062 and ran the numbers...

As of right now, 1,203,095 voters are registered in Nevada. Of them, 423,308 are eligible to stand in the GOP caucus.

This leaves 780,597 that are eligible to stand in the Democratic one, because we allow same-day registration. Let's say HALF the 309,255 non-major-party voters show up tomorrow and we'll say they break 53/47 Clinton. And let's further assume (ha, ha) the entire eligible voting population shows up at the polls - which never happens.

So....
331,763 Clinton
294,206 Sanders

For the Republicans to effectively overthrow the election, they would need to send 40,000 to 50,000 people to our caucus. For them to beat her by enough to really fuck things up for Hillary, they need an easy 100,000 defectors - which is roughly a quarter of their total strength, and you KNOW that ain't gonna happen.

I suspect we're worrying about nothing and Hillary will beat Bernie by a modest number - five points.