Hillary Clinton

sweetloukillbot

(12,744 posts)

2. I'm thinking Independents did it.

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:00 AM

Mar 2016

This doesn't affect the delegate totals, but she has consistently underperformed polling in the north, even when she won in Mass and Ia. I don't think Bernie can make up the deficit in delegates, but I certainly don't trust the polling anymore. I expect IL, OH to be closer than expected, but FL should be a solid win. I suspect Bernie will take the rest of the Mountain West, Washington and Oregon (probably by 10+ margins in all), Hillary will take Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania (in a close one), New York (larger), Connecticut and Rhode Island. New Mexico will go for Hillary, Arizona is a toss-up - high Latino vote, but the leading Latino legislator here endorsed Bernie, and we have a strong Libertarian streak. California I expect to be close but ultimately a Hillary victory. But Bernie needs blowouts in Ill, New York and California to catch up, and I just don't see that happening.

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Why did Hillary lose Michigan? [View all] Kang Colby Mar 2016 OP

Bernie won big with the independents and young voters. kstewart33 Mar 2016 #1

I agree. I can't see any situation where she loses FL and NC. Kang Colby Mar 2016 #8

Maybe we can figure out a running delegate total thingy to pin up top bravenak Mar 2016 #15

2383 n/t Kang Colby Mar 2016 #17

Thank you.nt bravenak Mar 2016 #19

You're welcome. Thank you for all you have done for Hillary supporters on DU. n/t Kang Colby Mar 2016 #26

Thats really nice of you, thanks. bravenak Mar 2016 #27

I like this idea! NurseJackie Mar 2016 #36

Yay!! We are still winning, btw. bravenak Mar 2016 #40

It's all in the delegates ... not the states! And ... NurseJackie Mar 2016 #42

I'm thinking Independents did it. sweetloukillbot Mar 2016 #2

While I also expect Illinois to be closer than projected, DemonGoddess Mar 2016 #53

It's alarming the way the Kerry losing was alarming ucrdem Mar 2016 #3

Sanders message was one that the working class was more receptive to bravenak Mar 2016 #4

Did Obama connect with those working class voters? Tommy2Tone Mar 2016 #10

I think she will win it in the general against kkktrump. bravenak Mar 2016 #11

Of course she will Tommy2Tone Mar 2016 #12

Yep. He only got thirty percent bravenak Mar 2016 #13

Obama didn't compete in the 2008 Michigan primary. LisaM Mar 2016 #47

Point taken Tommy2Tone Mar 2016 #49

I don't think she did get them actually, or at least they didn't count. LisaM Mar 2016 #50

That's right the ended up counting a delegate as a third or something Tommy2Tone Mar 2016 #59

They ultimately awarded her half of them. LisaM Mar 2016 #57

I agree, 100%. Kang Colby Mar 2016 #14

Yep bravenak Mar 2016 #18

Bernie would fit in with the NDP quite nicely. PM Martin Mar 2016 #20

It's the year of the Anti-Party. Skid Rogue Mar 2016 #5

I'll probably be criticized for saying it book_worm Mar 2016 #6

I think this is a pure demographics game MSMITH33156 Mar 2016 #7

I respectfully disagree Tommy2Tone Mar 2016 #9

I don't see Hillary losing her own state, NY. PM Martin Mar 2016 #16

Nate does not do his own polls, and his formula has been quit accurate for the most part. fleabiscuit Mar 2016 #41

That's a fair point. Kang Colby Mar 2016 #22

+1! Cha Mar 2016 #23

Here is where we are: bravenak Mar 2016 #21

Thank you, brave! Cha Mar 2016 #24

I went ahead and added the totals each need to win bravenak Mar 2016 #25

Ahhh.. the math. Cha Mar 2016 #28

Open primary and independents bravenak Mar 2016 #30

What about Ohio? PM Martin Mar 2016 #31

Will be difficult. bravenak Mar 2016 #32

I don't see Hillary losing her own state, NY. PM Martin Mar 2016 #33

I think most of the other polls will be better bravenak Mar 2016 #35

Pennsylvania's primary is also closed. n/t livetohike Mar 2016 #37

I'm glad.nt bravenak Mar 2016 #39

it was because of trade agreements. bernie DesertFlower Mar 2016 #29

If you think about it... anotherproletariat Mar 2016 #34

A generation of lies (R)ight there JSup Mar 2016 #61

Thank you! Cha Mar 2016 #64

High expectations LAS14 Mar 2016 #38

It would be helpful to know more about the independents who voted for Bernie. yardwork Mar 2016 #43

Independents in a Democratic primary are more than likely republican cross over voters. Loki Mar 2016 #46

That's exactly what I'm worried about. yardwork Mar 2016 #58

Indies seem to be a mix of BlueMTexpat Mar 2016 #54

the simple answer is she is allowing others to frame who she is and what she has done beachbum bob Mar 2016 #44

Cross over votes. Cha Mar 2016 #52

Michigan loss dburner3 Mar 2016 #45

A legendary Irish politician, anamnua Mar 2016 #48

brilliant but that wasn't the question. Cha Mar 2016 #51

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/ Her Sister Mar 2016 #55

I think we make too much of "win" and "lose" treestar Mar 2016 #56

That's a fact Jack! eom fleabiscuit Mar 2016 #60

I thought it might be over guns. Starry Messenger Mar 2016 #62

I live in Michigan,Kent County Iamaartist Mar 2016 #63

Michigan Iamaartist Mar 2016 #65