Hillary Clinton

Her Sister

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55. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 07:44 PM

Mar 2016

Many reasons given...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/

"If Bernie Sanders were to defeat Hillary Clinton in Michigan’s Democratic primary, it would be “among the greatest polling errors in primary history,” our editor in chief, Nate Silver, wrote Tuesday evening when results started to come in. Sanders pulled it off, and now we’re left wondering how it happened. How did Sanders win by 1.5 percentage points when our polling average showed Clinton ahead by 21 points and our forecasts showed that Sanders had less than a 1 percent chance of winning?

With a polling miss this big, no single factor is likely to explain it, so more than one answer could be correct. Also, not every pollster releases detailed data, and it may take some time to fully diagnose what went wrong. “It’s a little bit of everything,” Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray told The Huffington Post.

Here is our initial assessment of some possible explanations, along with comments from some of the pollsters who had reported a big Clinton lead:...."

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Why did Hillary lose Michigan? [View all] Kang Colby Mar 2016 OP

Bernie won big with the independents and young voters. kstewart33 Mar 2016 #1

I agree. I can't see any situation where she loses FL and NC. Kang Colby Mar 2016 #8

Maybe we can figure out a running delegate total thingy to pin up top bravenak Mar 2016 #15

2383 n/t Kang Colby Mar 2016 #17

Thank you.nt bravenak Mar 2016 #19

You're welcome. Thank you for all you have done for Hillary supporters on DU. n/t Kang Colby Mar 2016 #26

Thats really nice of you, thanks. bravenak Mar 2016 #27

I like this idea! NurseJackie Mar 2016 #36

Yay!! We are still winning, btw. bravenak Mar 2016 #40

It's all in the delegates ... not the states! And ... NurseJackie Mar 2016 #42

I'm thinking Independents did it. sweetloukillbot Mar 2016 #2

While I also expect Illinois to be closer than projected, DemonGoddess Mar 2016 #53

It's alarming the way the Kerry losing was alarming ucrdem Mar 2016 #3

Sanders message was one that the working class was more receptive to bravenak Mar 2016 #4

Did Obama connect with those working class voters? Tommy2Tone Mar 2016 #10

I think she will win it in the general against kkktrump. bravenak Mar 2016 #11

Of course she will Tommy2Tone Mar 2016 #12

Yep. He only got thirty percent bravenak Mar 2016 #13

Obama didn't compete in the 2008 Michigan primary. LisaM Mar 2016 #47

Point taken Tommy2Tone Mar 2016 #49

I don't think she did get them actually, or at least they didn't count. LisaM Mar 2016 #50

That's right the ended up counting a delegate as a third or something Tommy2Tone Mar 2016 #59

They ultimately awarded her half of them. LisaM Mar 2016 #57

I agree, 100%. Kang Colby Mar 2016 #14

Yep bravenak Mar 2016 #18

Bernie would fit in with the NDP quite nicely. PM Martin Mar 2016 #20

It's the year of the Anti-Party. Skid Rogue Mar 2016 #5

I'll probably be criticized for saying it book_worm Mar 2016 #6

I think this is a pure demographics game MSMITH33156 Mar 2016 #7

I respectfully disagree Tommy2Tone Mar 2016 #9

I don't see Hillary losing her own state, NY. PM Martin Mar 2016 #16

Nate does not do his own polls, and his formula has been quit accurate for the most part. fleabiscuit Mar 2016 #41

That's a fair point. Kang Colby Mar 2016 #22

+1! Cha Mar 2016 #23

Here is where we are: bravenak Mar 2016 #21

Thank you, brave! Cha Mar 2016 #24

I went ahead and added the totals each need to win bravenak Mar 2016 #25

Ahhh.. the math. Cha Mar 2016 #28

Open primary and independents bravenak Mar 2016 #30

What about Ohio? PM Martin Mar 2016 #31

Will be difficult. bravenak Mar 2016 #32

I don't see Hillary losing her own state, NY. PM Martin Mar 2016 #33

I think most of the other polls will be better bravenak Mar 2016 #35

Pennsylvania's primary is also closed. n/t livetohike Mar 2016 #37

I'm glad.nt bravenak Mar 2016 #39

it was because of trade agreements. bernie DesertFlower Mar 2016 #29

If you think about it... anotherproletariat Mar 2016 #34

A generation of lies (R)ight there JSup Mar 2016 #61

Thank you! Cha Mar 2016 #64

High expectations LAS14 Mar 2016 #38

It would be helpful to know more about the independents who voted for Bernie. yardwork Mar 2016 #43

Independents in a Democratic primary are more than likely republican cross over voters. Loki Mar 2016 #46

That's exactly what I'm worried about. yardwork Mar 2016 #58

Indies seem to be a mix of BlueMTexpat Mar 2016 #54

the simple answer is she is allowing others to frame who she is and what she has done beachbum bob Mar 2016 #44

Cross over votes. Cha Mar 2016 #52

Michigan loss dburner3 Mar 2016 #45

A legendary Irish politician, anamnua Mar 2016 #48

brilliant but that wasn't the question. Cha Mar 2016 #51

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/ Her Sister Mar 2016 #55

I think we make too much of "win" and "lose" treestar Mar 2016 #56

That's a fact Jack! eom fleabiscuit Mar 2016 #60

I thought it might be over guns. Starry Messenger Mar 2016 #62

I live in Michigan,Kent County Iamaartist Mar 2016 #63

Michigan Iamaartist Mar 2016 #65