IF HRC wins FL, OH, & NC it will be a very good night

[MSMITH33156]

10. I did some quick math

I know there is a very good, daily state of the primary thread that does all the math, but I wanted to extend that a bit just to see what future results could produce.

If Hillary wins 50% of the delegates on Tuesday (an awful night for her), then Sanders will need to win 56% percent of the remaining delegates to pass her in pledged delegates.

The 538 projections have Hillary picking up 59.87% of delegates on Tuesday. If that happens, Sanders will need to win 59% of the remaining delegates to pass her in pledged delegates.

I think we all thing 538 is overestimating Hillary's support quite a bit (particularly in Illinois). So let's just split the difference...at 55% on Tuesday, Sanders needs to win 57% of the remaining pledged delegates.

This is shaping up quite nicely. Especially in context. Because out of the remaining delegates after Tuesday, 56% come from just California, New York, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Now, Bernie might win some of those states (he won't win New York). But even if he does, there is no chance he blows all of those out. If he does really well in those states, and takes 53% of the delegates there (again, this is lights out for him because he is winning states with a huge minority population. This is more unlikely than his Michigan win, for example, which has more favorable Demographics than any of these states for him).

But, let's suspend disbelief and say he has some sort of major turnaround and starts winning states less favorable than Michigan by margins significantly greater than in Michigan and hits that 53% number on those 5 big states? What does that do to the math?

That means that on Tuesday, if Hillary gets:

50%, Sanders needs 59%
55%, Sanders needs 62%
60%, Sanders needs 66%

So, we're looking at the end-game here. Even if Tuesday doesn't go great, the fact that the most delegates remaining are sitting in prime country for us where Bernie won't be able to at the very least run up large margins, which narrows his path significantly. We're in great shape already, and can add to that on Tuesday. Even if Bernie has another "miracle" night, we'll actually move closer to the nomination.