Hillary Clinton
In reply to the discussion: Democratic voters deserve answers. [View all]jmowreader
(53,194 posts)1) He's blowing off quite a few states: in the places his campaign is confident Hillary is going to stomp him, like NC and, I believe, FL, he's running very minimal advertising. It's very grassroots in those places; he has a lot of Berners who are more than happy to do word-of-mouth advertising for him. Unfortunately, this doesn't work all that well - I have two screens, and on my second one I have the New York Times delegate tracker...which shows Hillary with a FL 62-35 lead with 2 percent reporting, and a prior-to-today delegate count of 768 Clinton/554 Sanders. A very large part of Sanders' strategy is flipping superdelegates; I think it'll work but not quite in the way he thinks - once Hillary clears 1200 to 1500 pledged delegates, I think all Sanders' supers will move to her. If she only wins two-thirds the delegates available today, she's over 1000 at the end of the night, and I think she'll do better than that.
2) Well...he isn't. I'm not sure without PAC/SuperPAC/529 money he can survive this month. Next week, when UT and ID come in, he'll do very well...problem is, together those states produce 56 delegates, which any of the four big states tonight will surpass.