Hillary Clinton

MSMITH33156

(879 posts)

6. I'm not sure about that

Fri Mar 25, 2016, 10:29 AM

Mar 2016

NC has been really close the last 2 elections (Obama won it 2008).

Obama lost NC by 100k votes in 2012, and the black vote made up 23%.

I didn't see exit polls for GA, but Obama lost that by 300k votes. I assume there is also a larger black vote.

I think the thinking here is demographic changes and percentage changes especially among Latino voters in Hillary's favor would automatically make those closer, and then with Trump turning off at least a portion of the Republican vote (particularly religious voters in GA and NC) that those two flip.

The problem with Texas is the margin. Romney won Texas by 1.3 million. It's just a lot of ground to make up because of Trump. It'll be closer, but flipping it is difficult.

Just on a percentage basis, Obama lost NC by 2%, GA by 8%, and TX by 16%.

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Highlight:

Nate Silver: Here's what the map might look like in an election held today. [View all] riversedge Mar 2016 OP

so the blue states are the donor states an the hollysmom Mar 2016 #1

Fact is as we have found in recent years no location is immune Thinkingabout Mar 2016 #3

he also tweeted this robbedvoter Mar 2016 #9

If they're giving NC and GA, by their own calculator, TX comes into play. joshcryer Mar 2016 #2

I'm not sure about that MSMITH33156 Mar 2016 #6

Oh, would that that were true! katmille Mar 2016 #7

I love this map Gothmog Mar 2016 #4

Hard word for Hillary and her Team --and volunteers riversedge Mar 2016 #5

I think a few more states could swing to Hillary if Trump is the nominee WI_DEM Mar 2016 #8

also, see his tweet - you'll love that map even more robbedvoter Mar 2016 #10