Democratic Delegate Scorecard for March 25, 2016. Hillary: 126%...Bernie: 78%

[MSMITH33156]

6. This was important

If there is bad news for Clinton, it's that the next month of contests could give the false impression that Sanders is on track for a big comeback. Over the next month, there are four more caucuses where Sanders could easily exceed 58 percent of delegates as he did in Idaho and Utah: Alaska, Hawaii, Washington and Wyoming. In addition, Sanders has a chance to win the Wisconsin primary on April 5, raising the prospect Sanders could string together five straight victories.

But Sanders's momentum is likely to be stalled by New York, Clinton's home state, on April 19. It's worth keeping in mind that New York has more delegates than Washington, Wisconsin, Idaho and Utah combined. And a week later on April 26, Sanders will face uphill battles in more diverse, higher-income northeastern states that should favor Clinton: Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware.

Cause it's exactly what's going to happen. Bernie is about to win a bunch of smaller states by wide margins because they are open caucuses. And there will be the false narrative of momentum. But after that, NY, PA, MD, CT, and DE have significantly more delegates than all the states between now and NY, and are all closed primaries in demographically friendly states to Clinton. We're going to reach peak Bernie over the next month, then the balloon is going to pop.

After April 26, Hillary will be up by more delegates than she is up by today, but in the interim, the lead is going to drop.