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stopbush

(24,801 posts)
14. My gut tells me that Hillary will pull out a squeaker of a victory.
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 02:56 PM
Apr 2016

1. The early voting was very high, and Hillary has so far benefitted from early voting

2. College IDs are not accepted as valid ID to vote. This will cut into Sanders typically overwhelming Indy vote. Other voter suppression tactics instituted by Scott Walker will effect both candidates equally.

3. The polls have been fluctuating, which tells me that Sanders' momentum is once again grinding to a halt. Sanders had a clear lead a few weeks ago, but Hillary has led in a few recent polls. Poor attendance figures at his latest rallies confirm that Sanders' momentum is soft.

4. Hillary is very strong in Milwaukee, while Sanders is strong in Madison. But Madison is a real college town, see #2 above. And there are more votes in the Milwaukee area.

5. Unknown - will Indies who can vote opt to cast their vote in the R primary to stop Trump, rather than voting for BS?

Worst case scenario is Sanders squeaks out a win, but his net delegates aren't enough to make a difference.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Good advice. Gman Apr 2016 #1
Do you happen to know... CalvinballPro Apr 2016 #2
44 % out of 86 Her Sister Apr 2016 #4
It'll be close, IMO. BlueMTexpat Apr 2016 #3
Great advice! Her Sister Apr 2016 #5
Great advice. kstewart33 Apr 2016 #6
Not worried - this is a primary, not a caucus - no bullying allowed at the polls.... George II Apr 2016 #7
They're... JSup Apr 2016 #18
Excellent point! George II Apr 2016 #21
It won't be that bad tonight cosmicone Apr 2016 #8
Thinking close also... Satch59 Apr 2016 #9
I don't know JustAnotherGen Apr 2016 #10
It will be bad, but I don't think it will be as bad as we fear. Chichiri Apr 2016 #11
I'll be at work DemonGoddess Apr 2016 #12
I'm not worried. Bernie will probably win, but he's running out of white states and caucuses. DanTex Apr 2016 #13
My gut tells me that Hillary will pull out a squeaker of a victory. stopbush Apr 2016 #14
yes SanDiegoDem Apr 2016 #15
Nice take on the primary tonite!! Her Sister Apr 2016 #20
Great advice. Can't wait for her to secure the nomination so the Bernie Bros return to their caves. beaglelover Apr 2016 #16
It's not going to be that horrible. NuclearDem Apr 2016 #17
I'm unconcerned. Treant Apr 2016 #19
It occurs to me while I watch some of the activity on #TellUsHowBernie that the timing... CalvinballPro Apr 2016 #22
Good advice SharonClark Apr 2016 #23
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