HILLARY GROUP - REAL Facts about the Morning Constant Poll

[Jim Lane]

11. Don't be so quick to dismiss the "Obama as albatross" idea

One thing that worries me greatly about 2016, regardless of the identity of our nominee, is the electorate's modern tendency to rotate the parties in the White House. The Depression gave the Democrats a period of dominance, winning five elections in a row, but since then neither party has won more than twice in a row except for Reagan-Reagan-Bush 41.

One reason Bush overcame the "let's give the other side a chance" mindset was that Reagan was very popular:

Asked if they approved or disapproved of the way Ronald Reagan handled his job as President since 1981, a CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted in January 1989 showed 68 percent of Americans approved. Just 26 percent disapproved.

(from this story)

By next year, Obama won't have the bad end-of-term poll numbers that afflicted Nixon and Carter, but he probably won't be in Reagan's territory, either. The Democratic nominee will have to worry about being blamed for everything a voter doesn't like about the preceding eight years, whether or not it was actually Obama's fault.

Fortunately it cuts the other way, too -- but we do have to worry about the "time for a change" attitude.