Ecuador is important for a much different reason. Correa. Now that Chavez is dead there is a struggle between the radical autocracies (Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua), versus pragmatic leftists (Brazil, Peru, Uruguay). Argentina is a political shambles because Cristina Fernandez isn't really fit to rule, and the country is becoming chaotic with many signs of the rise of populist fascism. I think they'll have their typical civil war if they keep going this way. So the key turning points are Ecuador and Mexico.
USA foreign policy has historically been flawed. I have such a radical interpretation about what's really going on inside the government I won't even discuss it. Lets just say USA foreign policy isn't designed to further the people's needs and it's more a servant of powerful special interests. It's so bad, it's not even viable to discuss it with Americans, they are too far brainwashed and primed to reject arguments.
So...the interesting issue is that Obama is a very smart man, and he realizes he has to behave in a certain way or they'll kill him. The intricate web of interests is too embedded in the CIA, FBI, NSA, Pentagon, and the Secret Service for a president to step out of their line too far and survive.
So I think right now they are mouthing off and sounding stupid to please a constituency they have to calm down. Meanwhile they'll keep working with Ecuador to turn trade into a weapon to pry Correa from the need to have Venezuelan economic help. Correa is a very smart guy and he also realizes Chavez ruined Venezuela, he never received as much as say Cuba, but he also knows that source dried up and today Venezuela is so poorly regarded it doesn't even dare issue bonds in the international market.
So what does Correa want? Mostly to have a means to improve the economy so he can stay on as president. And the USA will give him the trade advantages if they are smart. The USA does need to get its thinking cap on and encourage Ecuador to produce biofuels because it doesnt have that much oil, and also to ease the flow of private investment for light industry. The question is whether the USA, same as always, will shoot itself in the foot to please the imperial lobbies. Time will tell.
= new reply since forum marked as read