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sandensea

(23,372 posts)
2. Good question. I myself don't think so.
Thu Jul 25, 2019, 10:52 PM
Jul 2019

The U.S., the E.U., the U.K., and Japan (and to some extent China) have something almost no other country has: the ability to create massive amounts of hard currency, should the need arise due to some financial or other crisis.

The invisible power of hard currency was, of course, proven during the 2008 derivatives crash, when all of the above countries issued trillions in their respective currencies (as ledger entries in the central banks) to bail out their banks from mountains of bad debts.

Their governments were likewise bailed out, with trillions in deficits run up to help stimulate their economies - and most of that being "bought" by their central banks themselves.

With money created out of thin air, if you will.

And while I'd never want to see the faith in and strength of the dollar (and the other hard currencies) tested in that way ever again, I believe that if it came to that we'd be protected from outright collapse.

Not so, Argentina - alas.

Macri created a foreign debt snowball (swelling the public foreign debt from $85 billion to $200 billion in just 3½ years), that in turn created a debt service snowball - ballooning from $5 billion in 2015 to over $20 billion this year.

Since Argentina cannot create the dollars needed to meet those payments (it must export or borrow to get them, like most countries), it will have to either renegotiate the debts (with bondholders and IMF, mostly) or default on at least some of it.

And as mentioned in the caption, should a default take place Trump will almost as guilty as Macri is: he's ordered the IMF to lend Argentina $57 billion knowing they can't pay that back in 4 years.

All because Macri's a right-winger like himself, and a personal friend besides. Plus who knows what quid-pro-quo.

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