USA Jobs Shock - Joe Blogs

[progree]

4. Quite a contrast from the headline nonfarm payroll numbers

Establishment Survey
Table B-1 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
From Nov 2024 to Nov. 2025: 158,619k to 159,552k non-farm payroll jobs, an increase of 933k
Only a 119k increase from April (17k/month average), which is what everyone is yammering about, including Powell
who thinks these estimates are too high by 60k/month average (although he was speaking of April thru SEPTEMBER, 6 days before the October and November numbers came out) https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20251210.pdf

Non-farm payrolls: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
. . . monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth


Household Survey
Employed: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000 (an increase of 2,558k from Nov. 2024 to Nov. 2025)
. . . monthly changes: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
Labor Force: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000
. . . monthly changes: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000 ?output_view=net_1mth