STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Thursday, 31 May 2012

[Demeter]

61. The Allegory of the Optimist and the Realist: A Cautionary Tale

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article31465.htm

Imagine entering a room in which the electrical wiring is defective. You turn the switch on. Nothing happens. Someone replaces the bulb but the room remains dark. The circuit breaker is deemed operational. Most people, after a few attempts at flipping the switch, come to the realization that the circuit is broken. They accurately conclude that the light is not going to come on. This is a rational and intelligent response to the reality of the situation; one that weds cause and effect to results.

A few of the people in the room, however, have resolute faith in the defective circuit. They are confident that the light will eventually come on. Among them, the belief persists that if one continues to flip the switch enough times, eventually it will start working. Convinced that the problem is a defective bulb, they replace one light bulb with another every few minutes. As with political elections, one dim bulb follows another into the socket. Case after case of new bulbs is exhausted. And yet, despite the best of intentions of the optimists, the room remains as dark as a sarcophagus.

Suffering from cognitive dissonance, the eternal optimist, like Joe Hill’s fictitious character Mr. Block, ignores the fact that the wiring is broken and the circuit can never be operational without a major overhaul, regardless of how many times the switch is turned on. They contend that changing the bulb is easier and safer than rewiring the circuit. The optimists insist that when the right bulb is found light will dispel darkness and everything will become clear. This is what they have always done. It has never worked.

Nevertheless, despite decades of contrary results, the positivity and faith of the optimists cannot be blunted. In darkness, they busy themselves trying the switch again and again. Ignoring the enduring darkness, some outsiders admire the optimist’s diligence and determination. Light, they insist, like change one can believe in, is a matter of faith....