Weekend Economists: What Goes Up....June 1-3, 2012

[Demeter]

21. And what would that be? Babies?

I've seen an awful lot of newborns this spring. It's as if people have stopped waiting for the economy to improve. There's usually a baby boom when times are bad. I was surprised that it didn't happen in 2009, but people were hoping their finances would improve before they took the plunge...I'm betting a lot of people can't put it off any more.

The national birth rate plunged during the Great Depression, too....

U.S. Birthrate Declines for Third Year on Economic Worries Nov 18, 2011

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-18/u-s-birthrate-declines-for-third-year-on-economic-worries.html

The U.S. birthrate fell 3 percent last year (2010), the third straight decline, as the economy faltered and women delayed having children.

The birthrate dropped to 66.2 for every 1,000 women ages 15 to 44, the lowest since 1987, according to the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The teen birthrate fell to the lowest since records began, declining 9 percent from 2009, at 34.3 births per 1,000 teenagers.

“You do see people make choices about family size in tough economic times, and that’s consistent with this data,” Preston Britner, professor of human development and family studies at the University of Connecticut in Storrs, said in a phone interview. “In an economy like this you see people making choices about at least delaying childbirth.”

The total fertility rate of 1,932 births per 1,000 women was below the 2,100-birth level at which the population can be replaced, the report said. Without enough children to replace parents as they die, countries may be burdened with the costs of elder care as the population ages and maintaining infrastructure without enough workers.

The two-year recession that began in 2007 has left the U.S. with unemployment hovering at about 9 percent. Extreme poverty doubled in Midwestern metropolitan areas from 2000 to 2005-2009 and rose by a third in the South, according to a report from the Washington-based Brookings Institution. The number of Americans receiving food stamps rose to a record 45.8 million in August, and the housing market continues to drag on the economy.

‘Immediate Deterrent’

“If you think about the effects of housing insecurity and an increasing rate of foreclosures, the idea of bringing kids into housing instability may be a more immediate deterrent,” Britner said. “When you already have three kids, so be it, you find ways to make do. But if you’re at the stage where you’re still making decisions, you may want to find ways to delay.”

The only group in which births grew was in women ages 40 to 44, which had its highest rate since 1967 at 10.2 births for every 1,000 women, the report said. The rate for women 45 and over was unchanged at less than one birth for every 1,000.

The cost of raising a first child under the age of 1 in a two-parent household in the Northeast is about $17,000 a year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s cost calculator.

THIS REPORT IS FROM 2002

http://usgovinfo.about.com/cs/censusstatistic/a/aabirthrate.htm

Continuing a 12-year decline, the U.S. birth rate has dropped to the lowest level since national data have been available, according to statistics just released by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The rate of births among teenagers also fell to a new record low, continuing a decline that began in 1991.

The birth rate fell to 13.9 per 1,000 persons in 2002, down from 14.1 per 1,000 in 2001 and down a full 17 percent from the recent peak in 1990 (16.7 per 1,000), according to a new CDC report, "Births: Preliminary Data for 2002." CDC analysts say the birth rate is dropping as the increasing life span of Americans results in a smaller proportion of women of child childbearing age.

The birth rate among women of peak childbearing age has also been declining. Birth rates for women in their 20s and early 30s were generally down while births to older mothers (35-44) were still on the rise. Rates were stable for women over 45.

Among teenagers, the birth rate fell to 43 births per 1,000 females 15-19 years of age in 2002, a 5-percent decline from 2001 and a 28-percent decline from 1990. The decline in the birth rate for younger teens, 15-17 years of age, is even more substantial, dropping 38 percent from 1990 to 2002 compared to a drop of 18 percent for teens 18-19.

"The reduction in teen pregnancy has clearly been one of the most important public health success stories of the past decade," said Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson in a CDC press release. "The fact that this decline in teen births is continuing represents a significant accomplishment."

More than one fourth of all children born in 2002 were delivered by cesarean; the total cesarean delivery rate of 26.1 percent was the highest level ever reported in the United States.

Among other significant findings included:

In 2002, there were 4,019,280 births in the United States, down slightly from 2001 (4,025,933).

The percent of low birthweight babies (infants born weighing less than 2,500 grams) increased to 7.8 percent, up from 7.7 percent in 2001 and the highest level in more than 30 years. In addition, the percent of preterm births (infants born at less than 37 weeks of gestation) increased slightly over 2001, from 11.9 percent to 12 percent.

More than one-third of all births were to unmarried women.

The birth rate for unmarried women was down slightly in 2002 to 43.6 per 1,000 unmarried women, reflecting the growing number of unmarried women in the population.

Access to prenatal care continued a slow and steady increase. In 2002, 83.8 percent of women began receiving prenatal care in the first trimester of pregnancy, up from 83.4 percent in 2001 and 75.8 percent in 1990...

EVEN WIKIPEDIA HAS NO BUNDLE OF JOY

United States

Per U.S. federal government data released in March 2011, births fell 4% from 2007 to 2009, the largest drop in the U.S. for any two-year period since the 1970s.[16] Births have declined for three consecutive years, and are now 7% below the peak in 2007.[17] This drop has continued through 2010, according to data released by the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics in June 2011.[18]

Numerous experts have suggested that this decline is largely a reflection of unfavorable uneconomic conditions.[19] This connection between birth rates and economic downturns partly stems from the fact that American birth rates have now fallen to levels that are comparable to the Great Depression of the 1930s.[20] A state- level look at fertility, based on a report published by the Pew Research Center in October 2011, points of the strong correlation between lower birth rates and economic distress. In 2008, North Dakota has the nation’s lowest unemployment rate at only 3.1% and was the only state to show an increase (0.7%) in birth rates. All other states either remained the same or declined.

The research center’s study also found evidence of a correlation between economic difficulties and fertility declines by race and ethnicity. Hispanics, who are particularly affected by the recession have experienced the largest fertility declines, especially compared to whites who have smaller economic hardships and smaller declines in fertility. Statistically, from 2008–2009, birth rates declined 5.9% for Hispanic women, 2.4% among African American women and only 1.6% among white women. This may be linked to the fact that Hispanics have suffered the most loses of wealth since the beginning of the recession and are overly represented in terms of unemployment rates.

Other factors such as women’s labor force participation, contraceptive technology, and public policy make it difficult to determine how much, exactly, economic changes are causing fertility changes. Research suggests that much of the fertility decline that occurs during economic downturns is a postponement of childbearing, not a decision to have fewer children or no children at all. Most people plan to “catch up” to their plans of bearing children once the economic conditions turn around. Younger women are more likely than older women to postpone pregnancy because of economic factors since they have more time of biological fertility remaining.[21]

Teen birth rates in the U.S. are at the lowest level in U.S. history.[22] In fact, teen birth rates in the U.S. have consistently decreased since 1991 through 2012, except for a brief increase between 2005 and 2007.[22] The other aberration from this otherwise steady decline in teen birth rates is the 6% decrease in birth rates for 15–19 year olds between 2008 and 2009.[22] Despite these years of decrease, U.S. teen birth rates are still higher than in other developed nations.[22] Racial differences prevail with teen birth and pregnancy rates as well. The American Indian/Alaska Native, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic black teen pregnancy rates are more than double the non-Hispanic white teen birth rate.[23]