EF-0. Economy Stats with links to original sources. Links to LBN jobs threads thru 12/8/23

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4. EF-4. U.S. Stock Market as measured by the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Indus Avg

Last edited Fri May 1, 2020, 11:18 AM - Edit history (35)

{#} U.S. Stock Market as measured by the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average

Tired of hearing the righties insist that, during the Obama years, companies were "too uncertain" to make investments? Well, the investor and business community sure seemed to like Obama, judging from the stock market. During the Obama administration, the S&P 500 index rose up 166% (that's more than a doubling -- it's a 2.66-fold increase). (It declined 37% during G.W. Bush's 8 years of supposed business friendly and resolute firmness and certainty).

# Current value / last close of Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Oil, Gold, 10-year treasury bond, the Euro : the top of the page at http://finance.yahoo.com

# Historic daily closing values of the Dow and S&P 500 from many many decades ago to the present:
. . # S&P 500: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC+Historical+Prices
. . # Dow Jones Industrial Average: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EDJI+Historical+Prices

# Using the last closing before inauguration (G.W. Bush inaugurated noon Jan 20, 2001; Obama at noon, Jan 20, 2009; and Trump at noon, Jan 20, 2017)

# When Clinton left office and G.W. Bush took office, the S&P 500 index was at 1343.
# When G.W. Bush left office and Obama took office, the S&P 500 index was at 850.
# When Obama left office and and Trump took office, the S&P 500 index was at 2264.
# Thus under G.W. Bush, the S&P 500 index DROPPED 37%, from 1343 to 850.
. . While under Obama, the S&P 500 index rose from 850 to 2264, an INCREASE of 166% (a doubling plus an additional 66%, or 2.66 X)
# As of Friday 2/7/20 close, the S&P 500 index is at 3328, an increase of 47% under Trump so far (in fairness, remember we're comparing Trump's 3 years to Obama and G.W. Bush's 8 years -- if Trump continued at the same rate for 8 years, his 8 year record would be ( 1.47^(8/3) - 1 )*100% = 179% increase. "^" is exponentiation. ).

# Another timepoint often cited: at the close on election day, November 8, 2016 (the last close before Trump's election was announced), the S&P 500 stood at 2140

(Total returns - which includes dividends - are higher than the index gains by about 2% / year).

(I use the S&P 500 index rather than the Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJIA) because it is a much broader index of U.S. stocks, containing about 75% of the total U.S. stock market by capitalization. I would rather use the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index (^ DWC (without the space between the ^ and the D) but its history extends only back to 2004). Other U.S. total market indexes also extend back only a few years.

If you want to use the Dow Jones Industrials Average index (a silly legacy price-weighted average of 30 stocks), ticker ^ DJI (without the space between the ^ and the D), it is:
. . Dow Jones Industrial Average: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EDJI+Historical+Prices

Jan 19, 2001 10,587 Last Dow close under Clinton

Jan 16, 2009 8,281 Last Dow close under Bush (a 22% DECLINE under Bush)

Jan 19, 2017 19,732 Last Dow close under Obama (a 138% INCREASE under Obama -- that's a doubling plus an additional 38%, or 2.38 X)

As of Thursday 2/7/20 close, the Dow is at 29,103, an increase of 47% under Trump so far. (remember we're comparing Trump's 3 years to Obama and G.W. Bush's 8 years each)

# Another timepoint often: at the close on election day, November 8, 2016 (the last close before Trump's election was announced), the Dow stood at 18,333

(Total returns - which includes dividends - are higher than the index gains by about 2 to 3 percent per year)

{#} Stock market gains 1929-2011: much higher under Democratic presidents than Republican presidents

Democrats: +460%, Republicans: +110% (in nominal dollar terms)
Democrats: +300%, Republicans: 0% (in inflation-adjusted terms)
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/10/live-chart?fsrc=scn/tw/te/dc/gopsmacked

S&P 500 performance under 6 presidents beginning with Reagan

https://twitter.com/rickwtyler/status/1161740031012352000
The above is a bit out of date-- at about Trump's 3 year anniversary (Feb 7, 2020 close actually), Trump's S&P 500 is up 47%.

Source article/details: https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/business/stock-market-by-president/index.htm