Weekend Economists Take Five: December 7-9, 2012

[Demeter]

9. Unemployment Rate Edges Down to 7.7 Percent as Job Growth Slows

http://truth-out.org/news/item/13202-unemployment-rate-edges-down-to-77-percent-as-job-growth-slows

Self-employment jumped by 163,000 in November.

The unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent in November, its lowest level since December of 2008. However, the immediate cause was a drop of 350,000 in the size of the labor market as reported employment actually fell by 122,000. The establishment survey reported job growth of 146,000. With the prior two months growth revised downward by 49,000, this brings the average over the last three months to 139,000. This is somewhat worse than the 158,000 average rate of job growth over the last year.

The private sector accounted for almost all the November job growth, adding 147,000 jobs. Average growth over the last three months has been 153,000. All the loss in public sector employment over this period was attributable to decline in employment of 50,000 in local government education. Without the loss of jobs in this sector, government employment would have been essentially flat over the last year.

Retail was the biggest job gainer in November, which added 53,000 in November, 33,000 of which were in clothing. After showing little change for the prior three years, the retail sector has added 140,000 jobs over the last three months, with clothing being responsible for almost half (68,000) of these jobs. Some of these gains are almost certainly the result of changing seasonal patterns with retailers pulling forward holiday hiring. That suggests weaker growth going forward.

Construction employment fell by 20,000, more than reversing a 15,000 gain reported in October. Employment in the sector has been essentially flat over the last year. Manufacturing lost 7,000 jobs. Employment in the sector has been essentially flat since June after rising by 26,000 a month over the prior seven months. Temporary employment rose by 18,000 and health care added 20,000 jobs, slightly less than its average of 26,000 over the last year.

One anomaly was a jump of 14,600 jobs (4.0 percent) in the motion picture industry. This will be reversed in future months.

Women got somewhat more than half the gains (91,000 jobs) over the last month. This reverses the pattern for the last couple of years in which men were coming out ahead. The better job growth for men was not due to the comeback of traditional areas of male employment, such as construction and manufacturing, but rather by men getting a disproportionate share of the jobs created in areas such as retail and health care...