STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Monday, 11 March 2013

[Demeter]

6. Look at the jobs report to see how America has changed, and continues to change. by Fabius Maximus

http://fabiusmaximus.com/2013/03/10/employment-jobs-49247/

Summary: The news media coverage has expanded during the past 20 years, but probably only giving more heat than light. Hence the frequent assertions during 2010-2011 (eg, seen in the comments on the FM website) that we were in a recession — or even a depression. On the other end of the daft spectrum, we have the repeated forecasts since summer 2009 of the boom coming this year. After proving false, forecasters have settled on a target date of next year (ie, 2014). In fact, as many have pointed out — from Paul Krugman to articles on the FM website — the America economy has been slowly expanding, fueled by extreme monetary and fiscal stimulus. Accompanying this has been structural change of a grim sort. This post gives a quick review of these three perspectives, as seen in the jobs numbers...

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How much of the US population is in the labor force? That is, the fraction of the population who are either working or unemployed. Looking at the participation rate accounts for people entering and leaving the labor force: children growing up, immigrants, those retiring — and the unemployed who have given up looking for a job. This graph shows the participation rate for civilians between the age of 25 and 54, and so ignores the effect of boomers aging into disability and retirement. It measures how much of America’s greatest resource being used. Do you see any recovery?

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