STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Friday, 13 January 2012

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49. U.S. Federal Reserve Jan. Beige Book Summary (Text)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-11/u-s-federal-reserve-jan-beige-book-summary-text-.html

Summary

Contact reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic activity expanded at a modest to moderate pace during the reporting period of late November through the end of December. Seven Districts characterized growth as modest; of the remaining five, New York and Chicago noted a pickup in the pace of growth, Dallas and San Francisco reported moderate growth, and Richmond indicated that activity flattened or improved slightly. Compared with prior summaries, the reports on balance suggest ongoing improvement in economic conditions in recent months, with most Districts highlighting more favorable conditions than identified in reports from the late spring through early fall.

Consumer spending picked up in most Districts, reflecting significant gains in holiday retail sales compared with last year’s season, and activity in the travel and tourism sector expanded in most areas. Demand strengthened further for nonfinancial services, including professional and transportation services. Manufacturing activity generally continued to expand, although the pace of growth has slowed for selected subsectors such as technology products. Agricultural producers and extractors of natural resources reported generally robust conditions. Activity stayed sluggish in residential real estate markets, and conditions in commercial real estate markets remained somewhat soft overall but showed signs of ongoing improvement in several Districts. Reports from financial institutions generally indicated a slight uptick in loan demand by businesses, along with improvements in overall credit quality.
Upward price pressures and price increases remained quite limited for most categories of final goods and services, as the effects of prior increases in the costs of selected inputs have eased. Upward wage pressures were modest overall, although a few Districts noted substantial compensation increases for workers with specialized skills in selected sectors and regions.

Consumer Spending and Tourism

Reports on consumer spending were favorable in general. Most Districts reported that holiday retail sales were up noticeably over last year’s season, with New York and Dallas describing sales as “brisk” and “robust,” respectively. Consumer spending and confidence generally were characterized as firmer than in recent reporting periods, although Kansas City reported that spending softened. Items identified as the strongest holiday sellers by various Districts included consumer electronics and jewelry, and Chicago noted that luxury items in general sold well during the holiday season. By contrast, many Districts reported weak sales and excess inventories of warm clothing, due to unusually mild weather. Retail inventories more broadly were reported to be at or near desired levels, consistent with retailers’ sales expectations. Boston, New York, and Minneapolis noted exceptional growth in Internet sales for selected items. Sales of new automobiles continued to pick up in most Districts. Among the more favorable reports, Atlanta noted that the pace of auto sales in November and December was “the strongest in over two years,” and strong demand and sales were reported as well by New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Minneapolis....

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