http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-18/top-two-gold-forecasters-remain-bearish-after-2014-rally.html
The two most-accurate gold forecasters are holding to their bearish forecasts for 2014 even after the metal posted its best start to a year since 1983.
Futures rose 9.7 percent in 2014 through Feb. 14, rebounding from the biggest annual drop in three decades, and reached a three-month high. Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion increased by 3.2 metric tons last week, the most since December 2012, after slumping 869.1 tons last year when prices slid 28 percent.
“I just see this as a corrective move,” said Robin Bhar, the head of metals research at Societe Generale SA in London and the most-accurate forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the past two years. “We would still want to be bearish gold,” said Bhar, who expects a fourth-quarter average of $1,050.
Bullion got a boost this year from reports showing the U.S. wasn’t growing as fast as forecast and as lower prices spurred Asian demand, with coin sales rising from America to Australia. Gold’s best forecasters say the rebound won’t last because higher prices will stifle purchases and the Federal Reserve will continue slowing stimulus as the economy strengthens.
The metal will average $1,165 an ounce in the fourth quarter, down 12 percent from $1,318.60 on Feb. 14, according to the median of nine analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Futures traded at $1,314.90 today. Even after gold dropped 32 percent from a record $1,923.70 in September 2011, prices are twice the average of 2006.
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