STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Monday, 17 March 2014

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4. Bitcoin’s Evolution toward Self-Destruction By Dan Kervick

http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2014/03/bitcoins-evolution-toward-self-destruction.html

John Gapper, writing in the Financial Times, argues that Bitcoin enthusiasts need to grow up, and that Bitcoin itself needs to grow out of its obsessive adolescence. He writes in the aftermath of last week’s Newsweek story purporting to identify Bitcoin’s creator, and following the recent collapse and bankruptcy filing of the Mt. Gox Bitcoin exchange. In regard to the first event, which has sparked an outburst of hysterical resentment from the Bitcoin community, Gapper writes:

The hysteria undermines Bitcoin’s chances of graduating from a hobbyists’ obsession to a mainstream technology. You cannot challenge fiat currencies and disrupt the global payments industry while reacting to any uninvited scrutiny like an adolescent whose parent has opened the bedroom door without knocking. It does not work that way.

And Gapper also has some advice about the evasions of Bitcoiners in response to the Mt. Gox debacle:

In the case of other exchanges, and perhaps Mt Gox, Bitcoin payments were settled as intended but hackers then altered identifying information on the transactions to fool exchanges into believing that Bitcoins had not changed hands. Mt Gox, the argument goes, was a victim of its own sloppy online bookkeeping rather than a Bitcoin flaw.

To the average consumer, this is a distinction without a difference. Being able to trust “Bitcoin” as a technology but not to be sure that your own Bitcoins are safe does not mean much. The basic function of a bank is to store its depositors’ cash more securely than keeping it under the mattress and if Bitcoin cannot match it, little else matters.

Gapper’s piece is a plea to Bitcoin fans to act like grownups, and to get to work restoring Bitcoin’s credibility. But I’m afraid the non-grownup features of the crypto-currencies that Gapper now bemoans are not just remediable accidents of their current stage of development, but are inherent in their basic setup, which has always reflected a very naive understanding of the social and institutional nature of currencies and monetary systems, and a juvenile affection for the online virtual world of masks and shadows. The processes by which the crypto-currencies might be rendered more safe, stable, well-regulated and legally transparent are the very same processes which are gradually removing whatever features once separated those would-be currencies from conventional currencies, and which will destroy them as viable alternative systems for anything but a small residual volume of black market transactions.

Any advantages cryptographic currency platforms might provide over conventional digital currency platforms employing state-backed, third party bank currencies and public currencies will eventually be mimicked or absorbed by conventional systems, or else out-competed by equally low-cost, but more conventional alternatives. The fact is that in the long-run most honest people don’t want to use a weakly-regulated peer-to-peer “crypto” currency which offers less security, stability and legal verifiability than conventional currencies. Also, since Bitcoin will never achieve its dream of becoming an all-purpose medium of exchange that people are willing to hold and save, and not just used for spot exchanges on an as-needed basis, there will remain transaction costs at both ends of Bitcoin transactions as its users convert out of and then back into the conventional currencies that they really want to hold. Finally, the lack of formal, institutionalized accounting in the small Bitcoin economy based on the transactors’ names and other legal identifiers – a feature the enthusiasts see as Bitcoin’s greatest virtue – is ultimately going to add another layer of reporting costs and potential legal liabilities for users, since governments are clearly not going to allow a massive tax evasion and money laundering system to flourish unencumbered by verifiable record-keeping and reporting. Once governments fully catch up to the technology, and all of those required regulatory features are built into the more mature version of the Bitcoin economy, it is hard to see what benefits will remain...

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