http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-15/the-doomsayer-s-guide-to-the-fed-rates-and-what-could-go-wrong
...So if the Federal Reserve finally does raise rates this week, what could possibly go wrong?
Plenty it seems. Some market watchers such as former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers are warning that financial markets still aren’t ready and could easily be caught off-guard. As Summers and others have pointed out, futures traders are pricing in just a 28 percent chance of an increase this week, based on the assumption that the effective fed funds rate will average 0.375 percent after liftoff.
Even those who are relatively optimistic say there are weak spots that investors need to be wary of.
“It’s like a glass that has a crack in it,” said Aaron Kohli, an interest-rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets. “Predicting where that crack is going to spread is difficult to do.”
The pessimists have some ideas, though.
1) Short-End Tantrum
2) Emerging Contagion
3) Imperiled Borrowers
4) Structural Seizures
5) Risk of Standing Pat
“The worst case for me is that they don’t go and we have to do this all over again,” said John Briggs, the head of strategy for the Americas at RBS Securities Inc.
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