STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Wednesday, 11 November 2015

[Demeter]

5. Then there's the TPP: Warfare by Economic Means

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/11/200pm-water-cooler-1162015.html

The timeline href=”http://blogs.cfr.org/lindsay/2015/11/05/next-steps-for-the-tpp/”>Council on Foreign Relations

“The release, coupled with Obama’s statement that he intends to sign the deal, triggers two of the timelines set up by Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) legislation that Congress passed back in June.” (NOTE: TPA = “Trade Promotion Authority” = “Fast Track.”)

The first is the ninety-day clock. TPA requires the president to wait ninety days after announcing his intent to sign a trade deal before actually signing it. So while the United States and its eleven negotiating partners announced exactly one month ago that they had struck a deal, it’s still awaiting signatures. Indeed, the text is still being translated into French (for Canada) and Spanish (for Chile, Mexico, and Peru), and the lawyers might still make some technical corrections.

The second timeline is a sixty-day clock. TPA requires that the terms of any trade deal be made public for at least sixty days before Congress can consider it. Because the administration released the text at the same time it announced its intent to sign the deal, the sixty-day clock has no practical effect.

Does this mean that Congress will be taking up the legislation needed to implement TPP come early-February? Not quite. With the sixty-day clock already satisfied by then, Congress certainly could begin considering TPP once Obama signed it. But TPA does not require it to. Instead, the decision on when to formally begin deliberations rests with congressional leaders. Once they introduce the implementing legislation, Congress will have at most ninety days to hold an up-or-down vote. The legislation can’t be filibustered or buried in committee, so the common ways in which legislation gets killed on Capitol Hill won’t apply in this case.

How quickly congressional leaders will move on TPP will depend partly on when the administration will have the implementing legislation ready. TPP is a big, complex document, and the implementing legislation likely will be as well. Even more important, congressional leaders (and the administration) will be looking to see if the votes are there to pass TPP.

On that score, TPP is heading into the stiff political winds of Campaign 2016. Hillary Clinton, who once championed TPP, now opposes it, at least in its current version. Many Democratic lawmakers are feeling pressure to follow her lead. That pressure will likely grow as we move closer to Election Day. Republicans historically vote overwhelmingly for trade deals. But several GOP presidential candidates oppose TPP and the enthusiasm in GOP ranks for giving Obama a major legislative victory is low.

So don’t be surprised if a vote on TPP gets kicked into a lame-duck session or even into next year and a new administration.

U.S.: “‘The question is: will the White House demonstrate as much political will and determination as they did with the TPA (fast track) vote?’ the trade lobbyist said” (Forbes). “This being Obama’s last big policy initiative, there’s no reason to think they won’t.” Yes, Obama cares about this, unlike, say, health care. And they wouldn’t do this in the middle of an election if they didn’t think they had the muscle could pass it. But they’ve been wrong before, and could well be wrong again.

U.S.: “But U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, a Republican whose support will be crucial to passing the deal, said that although he reserved judgment on the fine print, negotiators might have to go back to the table” (Reuters). “While Hatch said he would carefully study the text, released on Thursday, he saw problems with provisions on tobacco, labor rules and dairy. ‘We’re losing votes as we speak for no good reason,’ he told reporters. ‘My suggestion is, get back to the bargaining table and let them know that this may not pass.'”

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