http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-20/ruble-trades-at-record-low-as-oil-impact-worse-than-sanctions
The ruble slumped to an all-time low as oil’s retreat choked revenue of the world’s largest energy exporter and restricted Russia’s ability to lift its economy out of a recession.
The currency weakened as much as 4.1 percent to 81.941 against the dollar, surpassing the previous record it touched at the peak of Russia’s financial-market turmoil in December 2014. Unlike then, when the central bank stepped in to shore up the ruble amid a crisis in confidence in the country due to sanctions over Ukraine, now Governor Elvira Nabiullina says the ruble is trading at a fair value and doesn’t need support.
While the ruble has fallen more than any other emerging market in 2016 with a depreciation of almost 10 percent, Brent crude has slumped by a steeper 26 percent. That’s driven Russia’s earnings from each barrel of oil it sells to the lowest since 2010 and forced the government to start considering austerity measures to avoid draining its rainy-day fund used to cover shortfalls in the budget.
"Oil is still a falling knife," said Piotr Matys, a strategist for emerging-market currencies at Rabobank in London, who’s next potential target is for the ruble is about 82.57. “The precipitous depreciation of the Russian ruble may have negative implications for inflation expectations, which would prevent the central bank from resuming its easing cycle."
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